CAJ | 학술논문

研究目的：城镇规模扩展用地是现阶段土地利用变化研究热点之一，对城镇规模扩展用地驱动性因素进行分析及趋势预测有利于现阶段的土地集约利用与规划。研究方法：运用扩展模型，对湖南省2000~2012年城镇建设用地扩张的驱动性因素进行了分析，并运用BP神经网络模型对未来湖南省城镇建设用地需求进行了预测。研究结果：在研究期内，地区人口数、产业结构变动、城镇化水平是湖南省城镇用地扩展的主要驱动因子；运用BP神经网络模型预测2015年、2020年湖南省城镇建设用地分别增至1663.20平方千米、2030.01平方千米，城镇建设用地年扩展率为6.57%。研究结论：社会固定资产投资、地区生产总值对城镇建设用地扩张的促进作用较弱，政策性因素和人口年龄结构对城镇建设用地扩展则有一定制约作用；在“十二五”背景下湖南省两型社会的构建与城镇土地集约化使用将会存在一定压力。最后结合城镇规模扩展中建设用地驱动因子的边际贡献和预测趋势，本文提出了相关政策建议。
연구목적：성진규모확전용지시현계단토지이용변화연구열점지일，대성진규모확전용지구동성인소진행분석급추세예측유리우현계단적토지집약이용여규화。연구방법：운용확전모형，대호남성2000~2012년성진건설용지확장적구동성인소진행료분석，병운용BP신경망락모형대미래호남성성진건설용지수구진행료예측。연구결과：재연구기내，지구인구수、산업결구변동、성진화수평시호남성성진용지확전적주요구동인자；운용BP신경망락모형예측2015년、2020년호남성성진건설용지분별증지1663.20평방천미、2030.01평방천미，성진건설용지년확전솔위6.57%。연구결론：사회고정자산투자、지구생산총치대성진건설용지확장적촉진작용교약，정책성인소화인구년령결구대성진건설용지확전칙유일정제약작용；재“십이오”배경하호남성량형사회적구건여성진토지집약화사용장회존재일정압력。최후결합성진규모확전중건설용지구동인자적변제공헌화예측추세，본문제출료상관정책건의。
The effect of land extension for urban constuction is currently the research focus of the land use change. In the study, based on Statistical Yearbook data of Hunan Province, and with the help of STIRPAT model, we analyze the dynamic characteristics of the urban construction land in Hunan from 2000 to 2012, and then apply BP neural network model to forecast the demand of urban construction land in the future. The results show that area population, changes of industrial structure, the level of urbanization are the main driving factors of urban land expansion; fixed asset investment, GDP have a weak promotion, policy factors and the age structure of population have restriction on the expansion of construction land. By the BP neural network model , this study predicts that construction land in 2015, 2020 will expand to 1663.2, 2030.01squarekilometers respectively, the annul rate of construction land is 6.57% per year. This article reveals that the pressure on intensive land-use and construction of two oriented society under the background of"Twelfth Five Year Plan"of Hunan. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions.