CAJ | 학술논문

针对突发事件应急处置难度大的特点，突发事件应急管理模式必须向“情景-应对”转变。从系统复杂性、开放式预先设想以及序贯性三个主要原则的角度理解突发事件情景演化的机理，构建了突发事件情景演化系统模型，并以此为基础设计了突发事件情景网络关键要素的提取方法。该方法以危险源形成、突发事件演化以及应急响应三方面主要内容为情景网络的主体，以三方面主要内容所涉及的影响因素为分支，适当的选取情景网络关键要素并将关键要素分为四类。该方法的提出弥补了情景网络关键要素提取方法理论的空白，为突发事件情景构建提供了理论支持。
침대돌발사건응급처치난도대적특점，돌발사건응급관리모식필수향“정경-응대”전변。종계통복잡성、개방식예선설상이급서관성삼개주요원칙적각도리해돌발사건정경연화적궤리，구건료돌발사건정경연화계통모형，병이차위기출설계료돌발사건정경망락관건요소적제취방법。해방법이위험원형성、돌발사건연화이급응급향응삼방면주요내용위정경망락적주체，이삼방면주요내용소섭급적영향인소위분지，괄당적선취정경망락관건요소병장관건요소분위사류。해방법적제출미보료정경망락관건요소제취방법이론적공백，위돌발사건정경구건제공료이론지지。
According to the characteristics of difficult in emergency disposal, the emergency management mode must be converted to "scenario-response". The system model of emergency scenario was established based on un-derstanding the evolution mechanism of emergency scenario from three main principles, namely, the system com-plexity, future-open thinking and sequential property. On this basis, the extraction method of key elements in e-mergency scenario network was designed. Taking the main contents of three aspects, including hazard source formula-tion, emergency evolution and emergency response, as the main body of scenario network, and taking the involved in-fluence factors of the above three aspects as branch, the key elements of scenario network were extracted appropriately and divided into four categories. The method compensates the blank in the theory about extraction method of key ele-ments in scenario network, and provides theoretical support for the emergency scenario construction.