CAJ | 학술논문

发动机冷却液的在线监测与性能预测评估，对保证发动机的正常运行是十分必要的。针对发动机冷却液性能劣化状况难以预测，且预测精确度低等问题；基于灰色系统理论，构建了灰色等维新息 GM(1,1)动态预测模型。通过对-35号乙二醇型发动机冷却液进行预测，研究了所建模型在冷却液劣化状况预测中的适用性。结果表明：灰色等维新息 GM(1,1)动态预测模型的模拟值与实际测量值基本吻合，模型预测精度高；同时，这也为发动机冷却液劣化状况的预测提供了一种新的有效途径，对科学、经济、合理地确定发动机冷却液的更换周期，具有重要的指导意义。
발동궤냉각액적재선감측여성능예측평고，대보증발동궤적정상운행시십분필요적。침대발동궤냉각액성능열화상황난이예측，차예측정학도저등문제；기우회색계통이론，구건료회색등유신식 GM(1,1)동태예측모형。통과대-35호을이순형발동궤냉각액진행예측，연구료소건모형재냉각액열화상황예측중적괄용성。결과표명：회색등유신식 GM(1,1)동태예측모형적모의치여실제측량치기본문합，모형예측정도고；동시，저야위발동궤냉각액열화상황적예측제공료일충신적유효도경，대과학、경제、합리지학정발동궤냉각액적경환주기，구유중요적지도의의。
Online monitoring and performance prediction of the engine coolant are necessary to ensure the normal operation of the engine. But it is difficult to predict the deterioration situation of the engine coolant, and the prediction accuracy is low. In this paper, the grey equal dimension and new information forecast model GM(1,1) was constructed based on the grey system theory. Taking -35 glycol engine coolant as an example,the applicability of constructed prediction model in prediction of the engine coolant deterioration situation was studied.The results show that, prediction results of the gray equal dimension and new information forecast model GM(1,1) are consistent with the actual measured values, and the accuracy of prediction result is higher. Meanwhile, the gray equal dimension and new information forecast model GM(1,1) can provide a new effective method to predict the deterioration situation of engine coolant, which has great guiding significance for the scientific, economical and rational period of changing engine coolant.