电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）
電子科技大學學報（社會科學版）
전자과기대학학보（사회과학판）
JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF ELECTRONIC SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF CHINA(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION)
2015年
1期
51-59,86
,共10页
碳排放%因素分解%驱动因素%LMDI
碳排放%因素分解%驅動因素%LMDI
탄배방%인소분해%구동인소%LMDI
carbon Emissions%decomposition Analysis%driving factors%LMDI
根据全国及北京市、天津市、上海市、广东省、湖北省和重庆市六个强制碳减排试点省市的碳排放量数据，采用对数平均权重Divisia分解法（LMDI），从能源结构、能源效率、经济发展三方面分析能源碳排放的驱动因素，发现能源结构对碳排放的影响相对较小，而且，在北京、天津和上海市，三大驱动因素对人均碳排放的贡献值明显大于在湖北省、广东省和重庆市的贡献值。进一步，采用多元线性回归模型和环比增长率数据，实证检验全国及六个试点省市三大驱动因素的变化对人均碳排放的影响。研究结果显示：从全国来看，能源结构变化对碳排放量影响不显著，而碳排放对能源效率的变化比对经济发展更为敏感。具体到各省市数据，湖北省三大驱动因素变化对碳排放的影响均不显著，而其他省市碳排放受各驱动因素的影响各具特点。研究结论为政府在各地区制定合理的碳减排政策提供了参考。
根據全國及北京市、天津市、上海市、廣東省、湖北省和重慶市六箇彊製碳減排試點省市的碳排放量數據，採用對數平均權重Divisia分解法（LMDI），從能源結構、能源效率、經濟髮展三方麵分析能源碳排放的驅動因素，髮現能源結構對碳排放的影響相對較小，而且，在北京、天津和上海市，三大驅動因素對人均碳排放的貢獻值明顯大于在湖北省、廣東省和重慶市的貢獻值。進一步，採用多元線性迴歸模型和環比增長率數據，實證檢驗全國及六箇試點省市三大驅動因素的變化對人均碳排放的影響。研究結果顯示：從全國來看，能源結構變化對碳排放量影響不顯著，而碳排放對能源效率的變化比對經濟髮展更為敏感。具體到各省市數據，湖北省三大驅動因素變化對碳排放的影響均不顯著，而其他省市碳排放受各驅動因素的影響各具特點。研究結論為政府在各地區製定閤理的碳減排政策提供瞭參攷。
근거전국급북경시、천진시、상해시、광동성、호북성화중경시륙개강제탄감배시점성시적탄배방량수거，채용대수평균권중Divisia분해법（LMDI），종능원결구、능원효솔、경제발전삼방면분석능원탄배방적구동인소，발현능원결구대탄배방적영향상대교소，이차，재북경、천진화상해시，삼대구동인소대인균탄배방적공헌치명현대우재호북성、광동성화중경시적공헌치。진일보，채용다원선성회귀모형화배비증장솔수거，실증검험전국급륙개시점성시삼대구동인소적변화대인균탄배방적영향。연구결과현시：종전국래간，능원결구변화대탄배방량영향불현저，이탄배방대능원효솔적변화비대경제발전경위민감。구체도각성시수거，호북성삼대구동인소변화대탄배방적영향균불현저，이기타성시탄배방수각구동인소적영향각구특점。연구결론위정부재각지구제정합리적탄감배정책제공료삼고。
According to the carbon emission data of the whole country and six pilot regions of mandatory carbon emission reduction, this paper studies the driving factors of energy carbon emissions from the energy structure, energy efficiency and economic development. By using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method, we find that the impact of energy structure on carbon emissions is relatively small, and the three driving factors’ contribution values to per capita carbon emissions in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai are significantly greater than that in Hubei, Guangdong and Chongqing. Further, by using the multiple linear regression models and the chain growth rate data of the whole country and six pilot regions of mandatory carbon emission reduction, this paper does empirical analysis on the impacts of the three driving factors’ changes on per capita carbon emissions. The results show that from a national perspective, the impact of the energy structure’s changes on carbon emissions is not significant, and carbon emissions are more sensitive to energy efficiency than to economic development. With the data specific to the six provinces and cities, the impacts of the three driving factors on carbon emissions are not significant in Hubei province, and the impacts in other provinces and cities are of different characteristics. These conclusions provide a reference for the government to develop reasonable policies of carbon emission reduction in various regions.
