CAJ | 학술논문

为解决当前复杂地形地貌背景区干旱风险评价研究普遍缺乏足够针对性的问题，以四川省为例，基于自然灾害风险理论，综合气象、水文、地形地貌、实际灾害和人口与社会经济等各方面信息构建评价指标体系，并从复杂地形地貌背景区的角度进行指标因子的计算。通过构建复杂地形地貌背景区的评价指标体系，并利用熵权赋权法，实现了基于格网的四川省干旱风险评价，得到了能够实际反映研究区干旱风险的、较为可靠的结果。结果显示，四川盆地大部和川西南攀枝花、凉山州部分地区干旱灾害风险等级高；广元、巴中、达州北部地区，凉山州和攀枝花市大部分地区以及宜宾市和泸州市南部地区，川西高原的部分河谷地带分布有一般等级的干旱风险；川西高原大部分地区风险较低。本研究，尤其在因子指标体系构建方面的研究，对类似复杂地形地貌背景区干旱风险评价工作的开展具有一定的借鉴意义。
위해결당전복잡지형지모배경구간한풍험평개연구보편결핍족구침대성적문제，이사천성위례，기우자연재해풍험이론，종합기상、수문、지형지모、실제재해화인구여사회경제등각방면신식구건평개지표체계，병종복잡지형지모배경구적각도진행지표인자적계산。통과구건복잡지형지모배경구적평개지표체계，병이용적권부권법，실현료기우격망적사천성간한풍험평개，득도료능구실제반영연구구간한풍험적、교위가고적결과。결과현시，사천분지대부화천서남반지화、량산주부분지구간한재해풍험등급고；엄원、파중、체주북부지구，량산주화반지화시대부분지구이급의빈시화로주시남부지구，천서고원적부분하곡지대분포유일반등급적간한풍험；천서고원대부분지구풍험교저。본연구，우기재인자지표체계구건방면적연구，대유사복잡지형지모배경구간한풍험평개공작적개전구유일정적차감의의。
This article intended to achieve drought risk assessment in complex topography area, such as Sichuan Province, in the support of natural disaster risk theory and multi-source data, especially satellite data which was widely used to reflect the properties of study area from different angles including meteorology, hydrology, topography. In detail, TRMM satellite precipitation data was used to make up for the shortage of data from meteorological stations. And the latitude, longitude and digital elevation model were introduced to improve the accuracy of temperature interpolation;furthermore, drought frequency instead of drought degree was calculated using Normalized Vegetation Index data to more accurately quantify drought risks. Meanwhile, an index of water acquisition cost was constructed to quantify the affections of terrain on water distribution and acquisition. In addition, raster data were used as far as possible, such as raster populations and economies. Thus, an index system which revealed variable properties of study area in different angles was constructed. And then, weights of the index system were calculated using entropy method. Finally, the drought risk in Sichuan Province was assessed. The accuracy of this assessment was tested by agricultural drought risk loss. It showed a high correlation between the agricultural loss and the drought risk achieved from this paper (R2=0.8347, P<0.001). Thus, the reliability of this research in aspect of drought risk assessment in complex topography areas was proved. Through the analysis of drought risk assessment result, it showed that:1) Most of Sichuan Basin, part of Panzhihua and Liangshan showed high drought risks; 2) Northern Guangyuan, Bazhong, Dazhou, most of Liangshan and Panzhihua, southern Yibin and Luzhou reached average risk degrees, as well as some valleys in the Western Sichuan Plateau;3) However, there was quite low risk in most of the Western Sichuan Plateau. Through this study, it proved that the index system and method in drought risk assessment had some reference significance especially in complex topography areas. At the same time, there were some shortages which needed to be improved. 1) Using Entropy method, statistical characteristics of data was fully taken into consideration, and weights of the indexes were determined according to the variation of each index. However, it failed to distinguish the importance of each index. To improve the accuracy of weight determination in further study,it was best to combine the objective method and subjective method. 2) The spatial resolution was greatly improved by introducing a large number of spatial data into study, which was a great breakthrough in drought risk assessment, for most studies just took administrative region as the basic unit. However, uncertainty was actually inevitably increased because of the accuracy problem of spatial data itself. 3) According to the requirements of natural disaster risk theory, 4 factors and 11 indexes were selected to construct the assessment system, which basically met the need of drought risk assessment in the study area. But the assessment system may need a further refinement and improvement in order to be able to reflect the complex background information of the complex topography area in all aspects more accurately and comprehensively.