CAJ | 학술논문

准确地评估潜在蒸散量的时空变化趋势对新疆水资源合理利用及气候变化下水文变化研究具有重要意义。该文采用Penman-Monteith 公式以及55个气象站的气象资料计算了新疆1961－2013年潜在蒸散量，运用年代距平、M-K检验、Cramer’s 突变检验，相关分析及贡献率分析方法，分析了新疆潜在蒸散量的时间、空间变化特征及变化原因。结果表明：1995年为ET0突变点。年ET0在1961－1994年处于明显减少趋势，平均递减率为?3.21 mm/a；在1995－2013年转为明显上升趋势，平均递增率为3.51 mm/a。空间上，75%以上的气象站在1961－1994年处于降低趋势，在1995－2013年转为增加趋势。在全区范围及天山北坡、天山南坡、昆仑山北麓3个分区，风速具有最大的相对贡献率。阿尔泰区则是相对湿度具有最大的相对贡献率。天山山区在两个时段分别是日照时数、温度具有最大贡献率。
준학지평고잠재증산량적시공변화추세대신강수자원합리이용급기후변화하수문변화연구구유중요의의。해문채용Penman-Monteith 공식이급55개기상참적기상자료계산료신강1961－2013년잠재증산량，운용년대거평、M-K검험、Cramer’s 돌변검험，상관분석급공헌솔분석방법，분석료신강잠재증산량적시간、공간변화특정급변화원인。결과표명：1995년위ET0돌변점。년ET0재1961－1994년처우명현감소추세，평균체감솔위?3.21 mm/a；재1995－2013년전위명현상승추세，평균체증솔위3.51 mm/a。공간상，75%이상적기상참재1961－1994년처우강저추세，재1995－2013년전위증가추세。재전구범위급천산북파、천산남파、곤륜산북록3개분구，풍속구유최대적상대공헌솔。아이태구칙시상대습도구유최대적상대공헌솔。천산산구재량개시단분별시일조시수、온도구유최대공헌솔。
Evapotranspiration is one of the important parameters in hydrological and meteorological studies. Under the background of global warming, it is essential to accurately estimate the potential evapotranspiration in arid and semiarid areas where the water resources are limited and excessively explored, which would be greatly helpful for planning the irrigation water supply and understanding the effects of climate change on hydrological processes. In this study, observed daily meteorological data during 1961-2013 from 55 meteorological stations, including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine hours, are used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration based on Penmen-Monteith equation, the methods of Mann-Kendall test, Cramer’s test, correlation analysis and the contributions analysis, for analyzing the spatial distribution and temporal changes in the potential evapotranspiration in XinJiang during 1961-2013. Major results were as follows: from the 1960s to the 1970s, potential evapotranspiration was dominated by positive anomaly, then changed into negative anomaly from 1980s to 1990s, and the annual and seasonal potential evaporation anomaly reached a low point in the 1990’s. Potential evapotranspiration anomaly descent in spring and summer is the key contributors to the annual potential evapotranspiration anomaly descent. There was a change point for ET0 series around the year 1994 based on the Cramer’s test. For the average in the region, ET0 decreased from 1961 to 1994 by 3.21 mm/a, while ET0 began to increase since 1995 at a rate of 3.51 mm/a. Spatial distribution of ET0 showed that during 1961–1994, annual ET0 in most sites (about 75%) had decreasing trends;on the contrary, during 1994–2010, about 76%sites had increasing trends. Based on the latitude, altitude and terrain, the study area was further divided into five climatic regions: the Altay Mountains, the south slope of Tianshan Mountains, the north slope of Tianshan Mountains, the Tianshan Mountain and the north foot of Kunlun Shan. The Cramer’s test for detecting a change point in annual ET0 of five climatic regions found that a change point for ET0 series was identified around the year 1994. Annual ET0 of five climatic regions decreased from 1961 to1994 and increased significantly from 1995 to 2013. The results indicated that wind speed, sunshine duration and relative humidity showed reverse trends during the period of 1995–2013 compared to the period of 1961–1994, and the temperature increasing was more significant since 1994. During 1961–1994 and 1995–2013, among all tested meteorological factors, wind speed had the highest complete correlation coefficient with ET0 in XinJiang. There does exist difference of the highest complete correlation coefficients among five climatic regions. During 1961–2013, wind speed became the biggest contributor in XinJiang and this was also apparent in the south slope of Tianshan Mountains, the north slope of Tianshan Mountains and the north foot of Kunlun Shan;while relative humidity was the biggest contributor in the Altay Mountains. From 1961 to 1994, hours of solar shine was the biggest contributor, whereas during 1994–2013, temperature became the biggest contributor in the Altay Mountains.