预测
預測
예측
FORECASTING
2015年
1期
60-65
,共6页
存款利率市场化%存款竞争%银行稳定
存款利率市場化%存款競爭%銀行穩定
존관리솔시장화%존관경쟁%은행은정
deposit interest rate marketization%deposit competition%banking stability
针对理论和实务界所担忧的利率市场化所激化的存款竞争风险问题,本文基于一个两期空间竞争模型,将为传统理论所忽略,但对我国银行业吸储行为有深刻影响的银行间市场批发资金融资引入经典存款竞争框架,通过对银行融资组合行为的数理建模,明晰了存款利率市场化条件下,市场竞争对银行稳定的作用机理,并据此导出了维护系统安全的制度建设建议。研究发现:当无银行间市场约束时,存款竞争在整体上会导致银行体系脆弱性的增加;而在该约束条件下,竞争通过降低具有系统重要性的高存款市场份额银行的风险,使银行体系呈现出更强的稳定性。这启示监管当局建立及巩固银行间市场约束机制可作为未来利率市场化环境中实现银行长期稳定的一个有效路径。
針對理論和實務界所擔憂的利率市場化所激化的存款競爭風險問題,本文基于一箇兩期空間競爭模型,將為傳統理論所忽略,但對我國銀行業吸儲行為有深刻影響的銀行間市場批髮資金融資引入經典存款競爭框架,通過對銀行融資組閤行為的數理建模,明晰瞭存款利率市場化條件下,市場競爭對銀行穩定的作用機理,併據此導齣瞭維護繫統安全的製度建設建議。研究髮現:噹無銀行間市場約束時,存款競爭在整體上會導緻銀行體繫脆弱性的增加;而在該約束條件下,競爭通過降低具有繫統重要性的高存款市場份額銀行的風險,使銀行體繫呈現齣更彊的穩定性。這啟示鑑管噹跼建立及鞏固銀行間市場約束機製可作為未來利率市場化環境中實現銀行長期穩定的一箇有效路徑。
침대이론화실무계소담우적리솔시장화소격화적존관경쟁풍험문제,본문기우일개량기공간경쟁모형,장위전통이론소홀략,단대아국은행업흡저행위유심각영향적은행간시장비발자금융자인입경전존관경쟁광가,통과대은행융자조합행위적수리건모,명석료존관리솔시장화조건하,시장경쟁대은행은정적작용궤리,병거차도출료유호계통안전적제도건설건의。연구발현:당무은행간시장약속시,존관경쟁재정체상회도치은행체계취약성적증가;이재해약속조건하,경쟁통과강저구유계통중요성적고존관시장빈액은행적풍험,사은행체계정현출경강적은정성。저계시감관당국건립급공고은행간시장약속궤제가작위미래리솔시장화배경중실현은행장기은정적일개유효로경。
In responding to the worry about the risk of deposit competition raised by deposit rate marketization, this paper, based on a two-period spatial competition model, introduces the interbank wholesale funding, which has been neglected by traditional theory but has profound effect on deposit-taking behavior, into classical deposit competition framework, makes clear the mechanism of the impact of competition on bank stability under the condition of deposit rate marketization through modeling of bank ’ s portfolio behavior of financing, and accordingly derives proposals for maintaining system security. The results show that: when there is no interbank market discipline, deposit competition will lead to increased vulnerability;but when the discipline effect exits, competition will enhance the stability of banking system by lowering the risk of banks of high market share which are of systematic importance. This implies the regulation authority that interbank market discipline can act as an effective way for keeping long-term bank stability in the forthcoming environment of deposit rate marketiztiion.