浙江电力
浙江電力
절강전력
ZHEJIANG ELECTRIC POWER
2015年
1期
55-58
,共4页
郭云鹏%彭明伟%李梁%赵萌%袁军
郭雲鵬%彭明偉%李樑%趙萌%袁軍
곽운붕%팽명위%리량%조맹%원군
电动汽车%保有量%多元线性回归法%Box-Cox Dogit模型
電動汽車%保有量%多元線性迴歸法%Box-Cox Dogit模型
전동기차%보유량%다원선성회귀법%Box-Cox Dogit모형
electric vehicle%amount%multiple linear regression method%Box-Cox Dogit model
电动汽车保有量发展趋势预测是电动汽车充/换电服务网络规划建设的重要参考依据，在分析汽车市场发展规律的基础上，选取其主要影响因子，通过多元线性回归法预测汽车市场的发展规模；采用Box-Cox Dogit模型分析电动汽车市场的分担规模，预测电动汽车市场规模的理论最大值；最后通过改进的Bass模型，确定电动汽车市场的内、外部影响系数，并预测其发展趋势，可为电动汽车相关规划提供参考依据。
電動汽車保有量髮展趨勢預測是電動汽車充/換電服務網絡規劃建設的重要參攷依據，在分析汽車市場髮展規律的基礎上，選取其主要影響因子，通過多元線性迴歸法預測汽車市場的髮展規模；採用Box-Cox Dogit模型分析電動汽車市場的分擔規模，預測電動汽車市場規模的理論最大值；最後通過改進的Bass模型，確定電動汽車市場的內、外部影響繫數，併預測其髮展趨勢，可為電動汽車相關規劃提供參攷依據。
전동기차보유량발전추세예측시전동기차충/환전복무망락규화건설적중요삼고의거，재분석기차시장발전규률적기출상，선취기주요영향인자，통과다원선성회귀법예측기차시장적발전규모；채용Box-Cox Dogit모형분석전동기차시장적분담규모，예측전동기차시장규모적이론최대치；최후통과개진적Bass모형，학정전동기차시장적내、외부영향계수，병예측기발전추세，가위전동기차상관규화제공삼고의거。
Development trend of electric vehicle amount is an important reference to the planning and con-struction of charging and battery swap service network for electric vehicles. By analyzing the law of electric vehicle development, the paper selects the main influencing factors to forecast development scale of electric vehicle market by multiple linear regression method. Box-Cox Dogit model is adopted to analyze sharing scale of EV market and forecast the theoretical maximum. Finally, influence coefficients in and out of electric ve-hicle market is concluded and the development trend is forecasted by the improved Bass model, which can be a reference for planning of electric vehicle.
