中山大学学报(自然科学版)
中山大學學報(自然科學版)
중산대학학보(자연과학판)
ACTA SCIENTIARUM NATURALIUM UNIVERSITATIS SUNYATSENI
2015年
1期
110-115
,共6页
水文干旱%联合分布%Copula 函数%韩江
水文榦旱%聯閤分佈%Copula 函數%韓江
수문간한%연합분포%Copula 함수%한강
hydrologic drought%joint distribution%Copula function%the Hanjiang river
利用韩江流域水口站、溪口站、潮安站3个站1956-2011年的月径流数据,计算6个月尺度的径流干旱指数 SDI 作为水文干旱分析指标,并根据游程理论提取干旱历时和干旱程度2个变量的要素值,采用两变量联合概率分布方法对韩江流域的干旱特征进行分析。通过比较各分布的拟合指标优选 P-III 分布为干旱历时边缘分布,Weilbull 分布作为干旱程度边缘分布。由 GH Copula 函数构造联合分布推求干旱历时和干旱程度的联合重现期和同现重现期的设计值。考虑干旱历时和干旱程度的不同组合,可以求得各干旱历时或干旱程度下的条件概率。计算结果表明,梅江流域遭遇干旱的风险较汀江以及韩江流域下游更大。
利用韓江流域水口站、溪口站、潮安站3箇站1956-2011年的月徑流數據,計算6箇月呎度的徑流榦旱指數 SDI 作為水文榦旱分析指標,併根據遊程理論提取榦旱歷時和榦旱程度2箇變量的要素值,採用兩變量聯閤概率分佈方法對韓江流域的榦旱特徵進行分析。通過比較各分佈的擬閤指標優選 P-III 分佈為榦旱歷時邊緣分佈,Weilbull 分佈作為榦旱程度邊緣分佈。由 GH Copula 函數構造聯閤分佈推求榦旱歷時和榦旱程度的聯閤重現期和同現重現期的設計值。攷慮榦旱歷時和榦旱程度的不同組閤,可以求得各榦旱歷時或榦旱程度下的條件概率。計算結果錶明,梅江流域遭遇榦旱的風險較汀江以及韓江流域下遊更大。
이용한강류역수구참、계구참、조안참3개참1956-2011년적월경류수거,계산6개월척도적경류간한지수 SDI 작위수문간한분석지표,병근거유정이론제취간한력시화간한정도2개변량적요소치,채용량변량연합개솔분포방법대한강류역적간한특정진행분석。통과비교각분포적의합지표우선 P-III 분포위간한력시변연분포,Weilbull 분포작위간한정도변연분포。유 GH Copula 함수구조연합분포추구간한력시화간한정도적연합중현기화동현중현기적설계치。고필간한력시화간한정도적불동조합,가이구득각간한력시혹간한정도하적조건개솔。계산결과표명,매강류역조우간한적풍험교정강이급한강류역하유경대。
Streamflow drought index (SDI)with 6-month was calculated using monthly runoffs as hydro-logic drought analysis indicator at three hydrologic stations of Shuikou,Sikou and Chaoan during 1956 -2011.And extraction of two variable element which is duration and degree of drought through run theory as well as analysis the drought characteristics of Hanjiang based on two variable joint probability distribution's method.The distribution of P-III was selected as the drought duration marginal distribution and the distribution of Weibull was selected as the drought degree marginal distribution by comparing each distribution fitting index.In order to obtain the design value of joint return period and co-occur-rence with duration and degree of drought using joint distribution structured by GH Copula.For the sake of obtain conditional probability of drought duration or drought degree under the each one,to consider combination of different duration and degree of drought.Seen from the results,the greater risk of facing drought by Meijiang is more than the Hanjiang downstream.