CAJ | 학술논문

设备风险评估是状态检修工作中的重要一环，是用来评估设备自身价值及其在系统中重要性的技术手段。对比国家电网公司《输变电设备风险评估导则》2008版和2013版的差异，指出系统风险定量计算、权重计算方法和设备故障率计算方法。其中系统风险由潮流越限、电压越限、电压稳定和连锁故障组成；权重计算依据法律法规进行；设备故障率依据历史统计数据。结果表明，新的风险导则能够避免定性风险评估结果混乱现象，推动风险理论在状态检修中得到更好应用。
설비풍험평고시상태검수공작중적중요일배，시용래평고설비자신개치급기재계통중중요성적기술수단。대비국가전망공사《수변전설비풍험평고도칙》2008판화2013판적차이，지출계통풍험정량계산、권중계산방법화설비고장솔계산방법。기중계통풍험유조류월한、전압월한、전압은정화련쇄고장조성；권중계산의거법율법규진행；설비고장솔의거역사통계수거。결과표명，신적풍험도칙능구피면정성풍험평고결과혼란현상，추동풍험이론재상태검수중득도경호응용。
Equipments risk assessment plays an important role in condition based maintenance. It is an important technological means to assess the equipment value and its importance in the power grid. Two versions of Transmission and transformation equipments risk assessment guide rule from State Grid of China are compared. Quantitative calculation of system risk, weight calculation method and equipment failure rate calculation method are described. System risk is composed with power flow off-limits, voltage out-of-limit, voltage instability and cascading failure. Weight calculation is based on laws and regulations. Equipment failure rate is based on historical statistics. New version of the guide rule (Q/GDW 1903—2013) avoids confusion phenomena in qualitative risk assessment result, and it could promote the application of risk theory in Condition Based Maintenance.