CAJ | 학술논문

利用双变量的线性与非线性Granger因果关系检验，以及基于扩展的新古典生产函数的线性与非线性Granger因果关系检验方法，对我国1953至2013年的能源消耗与经济增长之间的关系进行研究。结果发现，不同的方法分别支持四种不同的假说和因果关系，根据非线性研究和相关文献，我们认为我国存在从能源消耗到经济增长的单向非线性Granger因果关系。因此，需要通过增加可勘、可采能源存量，增加海外能源获取渠道和提高能源的利用效率，以保证能源对我国经济增长的推动作用。
이용쌍변량적선성여비선성Granger인과관계검험，이급기우확전적신고전생산함수적선성여비선성Granger인과관계검험방법，대아국1953지2013년적능원소모여경제증장지간적관계진행연구。결과발현，불동적방법분별지지사충불동적가설화인과관계，근거비선성연구화상관문헌，아문인위아국존재종능원소모도경제증장적단향비선성Granger인과관계。인차，수요통과증가가감、가채능원존량，증가해외능원획취거도화제고능원적이용효솔，이보증능원대아국경제증장적추동작용。
This study investigates the relationship between China ’ s energy consumption and economic grow th from 1953 to 2013 with two methods ,the bivariate linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests , and the linear and non_linear Granger causality tests based on the extension of neo_classical production func -tion .It is found that the different methods support four different hypotheses and causalities .Based on the relevant nonlinear studies and the recommendations of some foreign scholars ,this article argues that there is a unidirectional nonlinear Granger causality between the energy consumption and economic growth in Chi -na .The finding indicates that ,to extend the energy’s contribution in economic growth ,China should in-crease the energy exploration stocks ,promote the access to foreign energy sources and improve the energy efficiency .