西部论坛
西部論罈
서부론단
JOURNAL OF CHONGQING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY(WEST FORUM)
2015年
1期
60-65
,共6页
人均住房面积%房价泡沫%人均居住面积%房地产市场%房价相对泡沫指数%住房需求%城镇人口%人均可支配收入%房屋折旧率
人均住房麵積%房價泡沫%人均居住麵積%房地產市場%房價相對泡沫指數%住房需求%城鎮人口%人均可支配收入%房屋摺舊率
인균주방면적%방개포말%인균거주면적%방지산시장%방개상대포말지수%주방수구%성진인구%인균가지배수입%방옥절구솔
per capita rehousing area%housing price bubble%per capita residential area%real estate market%relative housing price bubble index%housing demand%urban population%per capita disposable income%housing depreciation
国家统计局公布的“城市人均住宅建筑面积”反映的是有当地户籍并有住房的城市居民的人均住房面积，与城市人均实际住房面积的概念存在着较大的差别。对我国24个主要大中城市实际人均住房面积的估算结果明显小于统计年鉴公布的数据，而且不同城市之间存在较大的差距；利用估算结果进一步估计各城市的房价相对泡沫指数，结果表明一些城市相对于其他城市存在较高的房价泡沫。我国城市人均住房面积与发达国家相比还有明显差距，对住房的刚性需求仍然强劲，房地产业还将保持较快的增长速度；对已经出现较大房价泡沫的城市，应防止其局部风险向全局风险转化，而对于房价泡沫程度不高的城市，应支持居民的合理住房需求。
國傢統計跼公佈的“城市人均住宅建築麵積”反映的是有噹地戶籍併有住房的城市居民的人均住房麵積，與城市人均實際住房麵積的概唸存在著較大的差彆。對我國24箇主要大中城市實際人均住房麵積的估算結果明顯小于統計年鑒公佈的數據，而且不同城市之間存在較大的差距；利用估算結果進一步估計各城市的房價相對泡沫指數，結果錶明一些城市相對于其他城市存在較高的房價泡沫。我國城市人均住房麵積與髮達國傢相比還有明顯差距，對住房的剛性需求仍然彊勁，房地產業還將保持較快的增長速度；對已經齣現較大房價泡沫的城市，應防止其跼部風險嚮全跼風險轉化，而對于房價泡沫程度不高的城市，應支持居民的閤理住房需求。
국가통계국공포적“성시인균주택건축면적”반영적시유당지호적병유주방적성시거민적인균주방면적，여성시인균실제주방면적적개념존재착교대적차별。대아국24개주요대중성시실제인균주방면적적고산결과명현소우통계년감공포적수거，이차불동성시지간존재교대적차거；이용고산결과진일보고계각성시적방개상대포말지수，결과표명일사성시상대우기타성시존재교고적방개포말。아국성시인균주방면적여발체국가상비환유명현차거，대주방적강성수구잉연강경，방지산업환장보지교쾌적증장속도；대이경출현교대방개포말적성시，응방지기국부풍험향전국풍험전화，이대우방개포말정도불고적성시，응지지거민적합리주방수구。
“Urban Per Capita Residential Construction Area” published by China Statistic Bureau reveals the per capita residential area of the urban residents with local household register, which is quite different from the concept of practical urban per capita rehousing area. The estimated result for practical per capita rehousing area in 24 big and medium cities is significantly smaller than the data published by the yearbooks, and furthermore, there is big difference between different cities. By using the estimated result to further estimate the relative bubble index of urban housing price in each city, the results show that there is relatively higher housing price bubble in some cities than in others, that there is obviously a gap of per capita rehousing area between China and the developed countries, that real estate industry will continue to keep rapid growth speed because the rigid demand for housing is still powerful. The local risk should be prevented from being transformed into global risk for the cities with big housing price bubble already and the reasonable housing demand of the residents should be supported for the cities without high housing price bubble.
