CAJ | 학술논문

采用我国48个老工业基地37个工业行业2006—2012年的数据，核算其碳排放量及变化趋势，并运用LMDI方法从区域和行业两个层面分析碳排放的影响因素，研究发现：老工业基地能源消费还是以煤炭消费为主；从地区层面看，行业规模和能源结构是影响碳排放的主要拉动因素，行业结构和行业能源强度是影响碳排放的重要制约因素；从行业层面看，行业规模对37个行业的碳排放均表现出拉动作用，能源强度对7个行业的碳排放起到拉动作用，能源结构对28个行业的碳排放量具有拉动作用。应适度控制工业行业规模，优化行业结构及能源消费结构，加快技术进步。
채용아국48개로공업기지37개공업행업2006—2012년적수거，핵산기탄배방량급변화추세，병운용LMDI방법종구역화행업량개층면분석탄배방적영향인소，연구발현：로공업기지능원소비환시이매탄소비위주；종지구층면간，행업규모화능원결구시영향탄배방적주요랍동인소，행업결구화행업능원강도시영향탄배방적중요제약인소；종행업층면간，행업규모대37개행업적탄배방균표현출랍동작용，능원강도대7개행업적탄배방기도랍동작용，능원결구대28개행업적탄배방량구유랍동작용。응괄도공제공업행업규모，우화행업결구급능원소비결구，가쾌기술진보。
By using the data of 37 industrial industries of China’ s 48 old industrial bases during 2006?2012, the carbon emission amount and its changing trend are calculated, the influencing factors of the carbon emission are analyzed from such two levels as regions and industries by using LMDI method, and the research finds that coal is the main energy consumption in old industrial bases, that the mainly driving factor affecting the carbon emission is industrial scale and energy structure from the perspective of regional level, that the important restriction factor affecting the carbon emission is industrial structure and industrial energy intensity, and that industrial scale has driving effect on the carbon emission of 37 industries while energy intensity has driving effect on the carbon emission of 7 industries and while energy structure has driving effect on the carbon emission of 28 industries. China should moderately control industrial industry scale, optimize industrial structure and energy consumption structure and accelerate technical progress.