CAJ | 학술논문

利用济宁地区11个县站1970～2012年逐日气象观测资料，运用最小二乘法进行线性倾向估计，分析济宁地区主要热量资源的时间、空间变化趋势及其对作物生长的影响。结果表明：济宁近43年作物生长季年平均气温整体呈阶段性上升趋势，增温速率为0．30℃／10a；≥0℃活动积温为5222．1℃?d，增加速率为86．7℃?d／10a；≥10℃的积温为4777．2℃?d，增温速率为77．4℃?d／10a；＜0℃负积温绝对值为99．1℃?d，增温速率为14．1℃?d／10a。≥0℃、≥10℃持续的日数增加4．5天和3．2天，稳定通过≥0℃、≥10℃初日提前了3天和2天，≥0℃、≥10℃的终日分别晚2天和1天。作物生长季内有效积温的增加，使冬小麦—夏玉米的生产系统受到显著影响，其中冬前生长积温增加导致传统播期的冬小麦冬前旺长，因此冬小麦须推迟播期以适应气候变暖带来的不利影响；对于夏玉米来说，由于热量的增加和冬小麦播期的推后，改变了原有套种模式，可以推迟至小麦收获后进行夏直播。
이용제저지구11개현참1970～2012년축일기상관측자료，운용최소이승법진행선성경향고계，분석제저지구주요열량자원적시간、공간변화추세급기대작물생장적영향。결과표명：제저근43년작물생장계년평균기온정체정계단성상승추세，증온속솔위0．30℃／10a；≥0℃활동적온위5222．1℃?d，증가속솔위86．7℃?d／10a；≥10℃적적온위4777．2℃?d，증온속솔위77．4℃?d／10a；＜0℃부적온절대치위99．1℃?d，증온속솔위14．1℃?d／10a。≥0℃、≥10℃지속적일수증가4．5천화3．2천，은정통과≥0℃、≥10℃초일제전료3천화2천，≥0℃、≥10℃적종일분별만2천화1천。작물생장계내유효적온적증가，사동소맥—하옥미적생산계통수도현저영향，기중동전생장적온증가도치전통파기적동소맥동전왕장，인차동소맥수추지파기이괄응기후변난대래적불리영향；대우하옥미래설，유우열량적증가화동소맥파기적추후，개변료원유투충모식，가이추지지소맥수획후진행하직파。
According to the daily meteorological data from 1970 to 2012 of 11 county stations in Jining area, the time and space variation tendency of heat resources and its impacts on crop growth were studied u-sing least square method to calculate linear tendency estimation.The results indicated that the annual average temperature during crop growth season showed the trend of gradual rise on the whole in recent 43 years in Ji-ning area, and the average rate of calescence was 0.30℃/10a.The annual active accumulated temperature of ≥0℃and≥10℃ were 5 222 .1℃? d and 4 777 .2℃?d with the warming rate of 86 .7℃? d/10 a and 77.4℃?d/10a.The absolute value of negative accumulated temperature of <0℃was 99.1℃?d with the war-ming rate of 14.1℃?d/10a.The consecutive days of≥0℃and≥10℃increased by 4.5 and 3.2 days, the initial date which stably through≥0℃and ≥10℃was 3 and 2 days earlier, and the date terminating≥0℃and≥10℃ was 2 and 1 days later respectively.The increase of effective accumulated temperature in crop growth season significantly affected the production system of winter wheat and summer corn.Among which, the increase of accumulated temperature before winter could result in vigorous growth before winter of winter wheat sowing on traditional date, thus the sowing date should be delayed to adapt to the adverse effects of climate warming.Due to the increase of heat and delay of winter wheat sowing date, which changed the traditional in-terplanting mode, the summer corn could be delayed to seed after wheat harvest.