山东农业科学
山東農業科學
산동농업과학
SHANGDONG AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
2015年
1期
153-156
,共4页
刘亚琦%刘加珍%张金萍%陈永金%徐梦晨%王成祥
劉亞琦%劉加珍%張金萍%陳永金%徐夢晨%王成祥
류아기%류가진%장금평%진영금%서몽신%왕성상
粮食产量%黄淮海平原%驱动因素%通径分析法
糧食產量%黃淮海平原%驅動因素%通徑分析法
양식산량%황회해평원%구동인소%통경분석법
Grain yield%The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain%Driving factor%Path analysis
采用通径分析方法,对影响黄淮海平原粮食产量的14个驱动因素进行统计分析,利用SPSS软件建立各因素线性回归模型,得出农业用电量、粮食作物播种面积、受灾面积、年平均气温、年底耕地面积5个因素对粮食产量的影响作用较大,进而提出要从提高农业机械化水平、稳定粮食面积、做好自然灾害预防工作、增加有效灌溉面积等多方面入手提高黄淮海平原的粮食产量。
採用通徑分析方法,對影響黃淮海平原糧食產量的14箇驅動因素進行統計分析,利用SPSS軟件建立各因素線性迴歸模型,得齣農業用電量、糧食作物播種麵積、受災麵積、年平均氣溫、年底耕地麵積5箇因素對糧食產量的影響作用較大,進而提齣要從提高農業機械化水平、穩定糧食麵積、做好自然災害預防工作、增加有效灌溉麵積等多方麵入手提高黃淮海平原的糧食產量。
채용통경분석방법,대영향황회해평원양식산량적14개구동인소진행통계분석,이용SPSS연건건립각인소선성회귀모형,득출농업용전량、양식작물파충면적、수재면적、년평균기온、년저경지면적5개인소대양식산량적영향작용교대,진이제출요종제고농업궤계화수평、은정양식면적、주호자연재해예방공작、증가유효관개면적등다방면입수제고황회해평원적양식산량。
The effects of 14 factors on grain yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain were analyzed by path analysis in this paper, and then the linear regression models of them were established by SPSS software.The results showed that the agricultural electricity consumption, sowing area of grain crops, disaster area, average annual tem-perature and cultivated land area in the end of the year had larger effects on grain yield.It was put forward to in-crease the grain yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain through improving the level of agricultural mechanization, stabling yield, preventing natural disasters, increasing the effective irrigation area and other aspects.