CAJ | 학술논문

以大庆钻探工程公司承揽的海外石油钻探项目为研究对象，通过发放和收集150份有效调查问卷，采用文献研究法、问卷调查法、德尔菲法专家法、模糊综合评价法等方法，对海外石油钻探项目的风险预警管理体系进行了研究；采用模糊综合评价法构建了海外石油钻探项目的风险预警评价模型。研究显示：(1)大庆海外石油钻探项目的总体风险管控良好，但仍存在较大优化空间；(2)政治经济风险、管理风险和财务风险对项目总风险的影响很大。政策建议：(1)采取有针对性的风险应对策略，对于较低风险水平的因素可以忽略，而对于较高风险水平的因素必须进行监控；(2)主要从政治经济风险、管理风险和财务风险方面来改进。
이대경찬탐공정공사승람적해외석유찬탐항목위연구대상，통과발방화수집150빈유효조사문권，채용문헌연구법、문권조사법、덕이비법전가법、모호종합평개법등방법，대해외석유찬탐항목적풍험예경관리체계진행료연구；채용모호종합평개법구건료해외석유찬탐항목적풍험예경평개모형。연구현시：(1)대경해외석유찬탐항목적총체풍험관공량호，단잉존재교대우화공간；(2)정치경제풍험、관리풍험화재무풍험대항목총풍험적영향흔대。정책건의：(1)채취유침대성적풍험응대책략，대우교저풍험수평적인소가이홀략，이대우교고풍험수평적인소필수진행감공；(2)주요종정치경제풍험、관리풍험화재무풍험방면래개진。
This paper focuses on the research of overseas oil drilling projects contracted by Daqing drilling engineering company. Through our efforts to issuing and collecting 150 effective questionnaires; using literature research, questionnaire survey method, Delphi method, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, we have studied the early-warning management system of overseas oil drilling project risks. On this basis, we have built risk early warning model regarding offshore oil drilling projects by using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Research shows that they have done well in controlling overall risks of overseas oil drilling projects in Daqing, but there are still numerous spaces for optimization. At the same time, political and economic risk, management risk, and ifnancial risk have a great inlfuence on overall risks of projects. In response to this, this paper suggests that we should take speciifc countermeasures to deal with the risks, monitor the higher level of risk factors, while ignore the lower level of risk factors. In addition, the improvements should be focused on political and economic risk, management risk, and ifnancial risk.