中国国土资源经济
中國國土資源經濟
중국국토자원경제
NATURAL RESOURSE ECONOMICS OF CHINA
2015年
1期
29-33,38
,共6页
供需理论%煤炭安全%评价指标%煤炭安全度%测算
供需理論%煤炭安全%評價指標%煤炭安全度%測算
공수이론%매탄안전%평개지표%매탄안전도%측산
supply and demand theory%coal safety%evaluation index%the degree of coal safety%measure
通过分析煤炭供需安全的影响因素，构建煤炭安全评价指标体系，运用AHP法、熵值法和TOPSIS分析方法，对2008-2011年中国煤炭安全度进行测算。结果表明：造成煤炭安全波动的主要因素包括新增煤炭探明储量的变化、替代能源占能源消费比重的变化、煤炭资源供需增速比值的变化。因此，维护我国煤炭安全需要进一步增加煤炭探明储量、提高替代能源消费比例和维持煤炭供需增速稳定，实现煤炭的有效供给。
通過分析煤炭供需安全的影響因素，構建煤炭安全評價指標體繫，運用AHP法、熵值法和TOPSIS分析方法，對2008-2011年中國煤炭安全度進行測算。結果錶明：造成煤炭安全波動的主要因素包括新增煤炭探明儲量的變化、替代能源佔能源消費比重的變化、煤炭資源供需增速比值的變化。因此，維護我國煤炭安全需要進一步增加煤炭探明儲量、提高替代能源消費比例和維持煤炭供需增速穩定，實現煤炭的有效供給。
통과분석매탄공수안전적영향인소，구건매탄안전평개지표체계，운용AHP법、적치법화TOPSIS분석방법，대2008-2011년중국매탄안전도진행측산。결과표명：조성매탄안전파동적주요인소포괄신증매탄탐명저량적변화、체대능원점능원소비비중적변화、매탄자원공수증속비치적변화。인차，유호아국매탄안전수요진일보증가매탄탐명저량、제고체대능원소비비례화유지매탄공수증속은정，실현매탄적유효공급。
Through analysis of the inlfuences with regard to safety of coal supply and demand, and establishing parameters system of coal safety assessment, this paper has measured China’s coal degree of safety between 2008 and 2011 by using APH method, entropy method, and analytical method of TOPSIS. The results show that the main factors inlfuencing coal safety lfuctuation include the change of new proven reserves of coal, the change of the proportion of alternative energy in energy consumption, and the change of the growth ratio of supply and demand of coal resources. In response to this, this paper offers that to maintain the security of coal, we must devote further efforts to increase proven reserves of coal, boost the share of consumption of alternative energy, maintain the stable growth of coal supply and demand, and reach effective supply of coal.
