CAJ | 학술논문

采用美国全球预报系统（Global Forecasting System，GFS）资料，利用谐波滤波提取空间长波、超长波分量，检验评估了GFS对2012年7月11—31日东亚地区大气环流场和降水的可预报能力。结果表明：GFS模式对东亚地区的中低层高度场预报可靠时效维持6 d以上，高层预报可靠时效可达10 d；长波、超长波的可预报效果显著，其中高度场长波5～8波的预报效果好于3～6波，风场则相反；GFS对我国南方两次持续性降水过程的可预报天数维持在8 d左右，并可提前2天预报出强降水带位置；模式对持续性降水过程预报相对站点观测降水量整体偏强。
채용미국전구예보계통（Global Forecasting System，GFS）자료，이용해파려파제취공간장파、초장파분량，검험평고료GFS대2012년7월11—31일동아지구대기배류장화강수적가예보능력。결과표명：GFS모식대동아지구적중저층고도장예보가고시효유지6 d이상，고층예보가고시효가체10 d；장파、초장파적가예보효과현저，기중고도장장파5～8파적예보효과호우3～6파，풍장칙상반；GFS대아국남방량차지속성강수과정적가예보천수유지재8 d좌우，병가제전2천예보출강강수대위치；모식대지속성강수과정예보상대참점관측강수량정체편강。
This study aims at assessing the predictability capacity of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) for the atmospheric circulation features and precipitation over East Asia during 11-31 July 2012 by using the GFS data and the extracted components of long wave and ultra-long wave via the harmonic filtering. The results show that the GFS model can predict the mid and lower heights over East Asia with reliable lead time of 6 d,and up to 10 d for the higher heights.The predictability for long wave and ultra-long wave components is more significant,of which the 5-8 wave-band forecast is better than the 3-6 wave one in terms of the forecasting skill for height.However,the forecast result is reversed for the wind filed. In addition,the predictability of the model for the two persistent rainfalls maintains 8 d or so,and moreo-ver it can tell the location of severe rainfall band ahead of 2 d.In general,the GFS model is stronger in forecasting the persistent precipitation process than the observed fields.