CAJ | 학술논문

灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型，应用于地面沉降模拟和预测中只能分析数据的指数变化规律。对于地面沉降发展过程中，存在的线性关系不能有效地反映。本文利用灰色组合模型中的第一类灰色组合模型即GM(1,1)与线性回归模型相融合。选取北京东部某地面沉降监测站2004～2012年的分层监测数据建立模型，计算出各监测层位沉降的数学模型，并以此预测各监测层位地面沉降量。结果表明：利用灰色线性回归组合模型在对地面沉降进行分层模拟和预测是可行的。在已有数据的基础上，利用数学模型进行沉降模拟时，两种模型的精度均很高，但通过模型预测未来一年沉降量时，灰色线性回归组合模型的精度，要远高于普通均值GM(1,1)模型。
회색계통이론GM(1,1)모형，응용우지면침강모의화예측중지능분석수거적지수변화규률。대우지면침강발전과정중，존재적선성관계불능유효지반영。본문이용회색조합모형중적제일류회색조합모형즉GM(1,1)여선성회귀모형상융합。선취북경동부모지면침강감측참2004～2012년적분층감측수거건립모형，계산출각감측층위침강적수학모형，병이차예측각감측층위지면침강량。결과표명：이용회색선성회귀조합모형재대지면침강진행분층모의화예측시가행적。재이유수거적기출상，이용수학모형진행침강모의시，량충모형적정도균흔고，단통과모형예측미래일년침강량시，회색선성회귀조합모형적정도，요원고우보통균치GM(1,1)모형。
GM (1, 1) model of grey system theory can only be applied to analyze monitoring data with exponent law, but can't effectively reflect a linear relationship in the simulation and prediction of land subsidence. A combination of GM (1, 1) grey model and linear regression model is proposed in this paper. Such combination model is established using data from 2004-2012 and used to make a prediction for each monitoring layer of the land subsidence monitoring station located in the east of Beijing. The results show that it is feasible to apply grey-linear regression combination model for iftting and predicting the layered land subsidence. The precision of iftting the existing data for both of GM (1, 1) model and combination model is high. However, the precision of the latter model is much higher than GM (1, 1) model when predicting the future land subsidence in a year.