CAJ | 학술논문

灰色预测模型在变形监测领域已得到广泛的应用和发展，灰色模型在理论上可以进行中长期预测，但实际应用中随着时间的推移预测精度也随之下降，为了解决这一问题，本文对GM（1，1）模型进行了改进并将改进后的GM（1，1）模型与时间序列模型组合，利用GM－AR模型进行预测可提高模型的预测精度，并应用实例证明了该方法的可行性。
회색예측모형재변형감측영역이득도엄범적응용화발전，회색모형재이론상가이진행중장기예측，단실제응용중수착시간적추이예측정도야수지하강，위료해결저일문제，본문대GM（1，1）모형진행료개진병장개진후적GM（1，1）모형여시간서렬모형조합，이용GM－AR모형진행예측가제고모형적예측정도，병응용실예증명료해방법적가행성。
Gray forecast model in deformation monitoring field has been widely used and developed , gray model in theory can be long-term forecasts , but the practical application prediction accuracy over time also fall , in order to solve this problem this paper , GM (1,1) model was modified and improved GM (1,1) model combined with time series models , the use of GM-AR model to predict improve the prediction accuracy and application examples demonstrate the feasibility of the method .