CAJ | 학술논문

随着煤炭资源逐步转向深部开采,软岩巷道的支护问题显得尤为突出,巷道围岩变形监测及预测对巷道支护设计、维护等具有重要的指导意义。传统的预测方法多基于岩体力学理论,计算过程较为复杂。以巷道围岩变形原始数据作为参考数列,结合灰色系统理论,构建基于全数据GM(1,1)、新信息GM(1,1)、新陈代谢GM(1,1)等3类预测模型的软岩巷道围岩变形预测灰色模型群,并将其应用于预测某矿软岩巷道顶底板及两帮围岩变形位移。结果表明,利用该灰色模型群进行巷道围岩变形预测的精度较高,能较好地顾及围岩变形新信息对预测精度的影响,使得预测结果更加符合实际。
수착매탄자원축보전향심부개채,연암항도적지호문제현득우위돌출,항도위암변형감측급예측대항도지호설계、유호등구유중요적지도의의。전통적예측방법다기우암체역학이론,계산과정교위복잡。이항도위암변형원시수거작위삼고수렬,결합회색계통이론,구건기우전수거GM(1,1)、신신식GM(1,1)、신진대사GM(1,1)등3류예측모형적연암항도위암변형예측회색모형군,병장기응용우예측모광연암항도정저판급량방위암변형위이。결과표명,이용해회색모형군진행항도위암변형예측적정도교고,능교호지고급위암변형신신식대예측정도적영향,사득예측결과경가부합실제。
With the increasing of mining depth,more and more problems in roadway supporting with soft rock are becom-ing serious. The deformation monitoring and predicting of surrounding rock have important guiding significance for the roadway supporting design and maintenance. The traditional forecasting method is mainly based on the rock mechanics,with complex calculation. Based on the original survey data of the surrounding rock deformation in tunnels,and with the aid of the grey theo-ry,the grey prediction model groups of the soft surrounding rock deformation in tunnels is established,including all data GM (1,1) model,new information GM(1,1) model and metabolism GM(1,1) model. Then,the grey model groups are used to predict the surrounding rock deformation of the roof and floor and the two sides of roadway with soft rock. The research results show that,the grey model groups own a high precision in predicting the deformation. It can reflect the influence of the new in-formation of surrounding deformation to the prediction results and make the prediction results more consistent with the actual situation of surrounding deformation.