CAJ | 학술논문

利用1998-2012年国内赴沪旅游者各项旅游消费的数据，首先对国内赴沪旅游者旅游消费结构进行了初步判断，目前国内赴沪旅游者旅游消费结构拥有以下三大特点：①国内赴沪旅游者各项旅游消费所占比重存在较大差异，且差异缓慢扩大；②餐饮、购物、门票费用所占比重上升，其余旅游消费项比重有所下降；③非基本旅游消费所占比重逐渐扩大，旅游消费结构趋于合理。在此基础上，继续运用马尔科夫预测对国内赴沪旅游者旅游消费结构展开深入研究，发现国内赴沪旅游者旅游购物费所占比重急速上升概率较大，其余旅游消费所占比重缓慢下降趋势较强。在对这一结论进行原因剖析后，最后提出了相应的国内赴沪旅游者旅游消费结构优化建议。
이용1998-2012년국내부호여유자각항여유소비적수거，수선대국내부호여유자여유소비결구진행료초보판단，목전국내부호여유자여유소비결구옹유이하삼대특점：①국내부호여유자각항여유소비소점비중존재교대차이，차차이완만확대；②찬음、구물、문표비용소점비중상승，기여여유소비항비중유소하강；③비기본여유소비소점비중축점확대，여유소비결구추우합리。재차기출상，계속운용마이과부예측대국내부호여유자여유소비결구전개심입연구，발현국내부호여유자여유구물비소점비중급속상승개솔교대，기여여유소비소점비중완만하강추세교강。재대저일결론진행원인부석후，최후제출료상응적국내부호여유자여유소비결구우화건의。
The paper makes a preliminary judgment on the tourism consumption structure of domestic tourists in Shanghai based on the data of various tourism consumption items of domestic tourists in Shanghai from 1 998 to 2012 in the first place.Currently, the tourism consumption structure of domestic tourists in Shanghai has the following three characteristics:①There is a big differ-ence in the proportion of various tourism consumption items of domestic tourists in Shanghai and the difference is expanding slow-ly;②There is a rise in the proportion of expense of catering,shopping,admission ticket and a decline in other tourism consump-tion items.③The proportion of nonbasic tourism consumption is rising and the tourism consumption structure tends to be more reasonable.On the basis,the paper continues to lucubrate the tourism consumption structure of domestic tourists in Shanghai by the Markov prediction and come to the conclusion that the proportion of the shopping fee of domestic tourists in Shanghai is more probable to increase,and the proportion of other tourism consumption shows a strong trend of slow decline.After the reason-a-nalysis of this conclusion,the paper puts forward relevant suggestion on optimization of the tourism consumption structure of do-mestic tourists in Shanghai.