CAJ | 학술논문

能源产品出口大国往往利用手中的能源产品价格调控手段实现自身的政治或经济诉求，而价格波动通常会对产品的进出口双方及世界其他国家的经济产生剧烈的短期影响。利用GTAP模型分析俄罗斯对乌克兰天然气提价这一情景，结果显示：俄对乌提价会给两国带来巨额损失，且俄同时对中日韩三国天然气降价亦无法减少其国内损失，也不会给中日韩三国带来显著的额外利益。而欧盟在这场提价中也存在数亿美元的福利损失，且欧盟对乌反向供气也不能缓解乌克兰的经济状况。总之，在全球一体化的浪潮下，面对全球突发事件的影响，没有任何一个贸易参与主体能够独善其身。
능원산품출구대국왕왕이용수중적능원산품개격조공수단실현자신적정치혹경제소구，이개격파동통상회대산품적진출구쌍방급세계기타국가적경제산생극렬적단기영향。이용GTAP모형분석아라사대오극란천연기제개저일정경，결과현시：아대오제개회급량국대래거액손실，차아동시대중일한삼국천연기강개역무법감소기국내손실，야불회급중일한삼국대래현저적액외이익。이구맹재저장제개중야존재수억미원적복리손실，차구맹대오반향공기야불능완해오극란적경제상황。총지，재전구일체화적랑조하，면대전구돌발사건적영향，몰유임하일개무역삼여주체능구독선기신。
In international trade, large energy exporters usually use the energy price as a weapon to achieve their own political or economic goals. Changes of energy prices may affect the economy of exporters, importers and other coun-tries in the short turn. In this study, a GTAP model is used to simulate the possible consequences of the dispute between Russia and Ukraine in 2014. The results indicate that the rise in natural gas price will cause huge losses to both Russia and Ukraine. For Russia, the option of reducing export price to China, Japan and Korea will neither decrease its loss, nor improve the economy of China, Japan and Korea. As the immediate stakeholders, the EU will get 973 million dollars wel-fare loss. In addition, even if EU provides gas backward to Ukraine, it will not improve Ukrainian economy. This result proves that no party can be spared under the background of globalization.