CAJ | 학술논문

安全是核电发展的重大前提，但是核电发展的短短历史时期内就发生了3次严重事故，第4次事故会不会发生在中国？通过列举历史、法规、技术、文化、制度等方面的因素，说明可以保障中国核电不发生严重事故，但是由于存在法规杂乱、技术青涩以及人因等因素，使得核电存在发生严重事故的可能。应用概率方法，对各国严重事故发生概率进行了计算，发现事故一般都早于计算的预期，核电在中长期内还存在发生严重事故的可能。中国核电应杜绝“大跃进”式发展，统一完善核电法规标准，严格制度和实施过程，选择科学的发展模式，才能保证核电安全。
안전시핵전발전적중대전제，단시핵전발전적단단역사시기내취발생료3차엄중사고，제4차사고회불회발생재중국？통과열거역사、법규、기술、문화、제도등방면적인소，설명가이보장중국핵전불발생엄중사고，단시유우존재법규잡란、기술청삽이급인인등인소，사득핵전존재발생엄중사고적가능。응용개솔방법，대각국엄중사고발생개솔진행료계산，발현사고일반도조우계산적예기，핵전재중장기내환존재발생엄중사고적가능。중국핵전응두절“대약진”식발전，통일완선핵전법규표준，엄격제도화실시과정，선택과학적발전모식，재능보증핵전안전。
Safety is the major premise of nuclear power development ,but severe accidents have happened three times in the history of nuclear power development .Will the fourth severe accident in next decades and will it happen in China?There are some factors about history ,regulation ,technology ,culture and system that may ensure nuclear power safety in China ,but the possibility of severe accidents happened in China is indeed existed because of messy regulations ,imperfect technologies and human factors .By calculating the probability of severe accidents happened in the world ,severe accidents often happen earlier than expected and the possibility of severe accidents happened is existed in the medium to long term .The‘Great leap forward’ development style should be prevented in Chinese nuclear power and so nuclear power laws and regulations stan-dards should be completed .The scientific development model should be chosen to guarantee nuclear power safety .