贵州农业科学
貴州農業科學
귀주농업과학
GUIZHOU AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
2015年
1期
190-194
,共5页
玉米发育期%降水量%耗水量%满足度%干旱风险%辽宁西部地区
玉米髮育期%降水量%耗水量%滿足度%榦旱風險%遼寧西部地區
옥미발육기%강수량%모수량%만족도%간한풍험%료녕서부지구
maize growth period%precipitation%water consumption%satisfaction degree%drought risk%western Liaoning
为玉米生产防灾减灾服务,确保粮食生产安全,采用辽宁西部气象监测站1953—2013年气候资料,运用积分湿度指数、干湿指数、气候倾向率等气候诊断分析方法,评价辽西地区玉米全生育期降水满足度、干旱频率及变化趋势。结果表明:1)1953—2013年期间玉米全生育期大气降水减少,气候变化率为-11.594 mm/10a,近10年(2004—2013年)减少76.7 mm;耗水量增加,气候变化率为3.842 mm/10a,近10年增加11.6 mm;玉米全生育期水分平均亏缺66.9 mm,近10年亏缺122.7 mm;2)降水满足度为84.0%,气候倾向率为-2.512 mm/10a,近10年降水满足度下降16.3%;3)辽西地区玉米全生育期内属于半湿润气候类型,半干旱年景占27.9%,近10年干湿程度升级为半干旱气候类型;4)干旱风险度平均为26.9%,干旱风险度升高趋势明显,2004—2013年比1953—1962年干旱风险度增加14百分点。
為玉米生產防災減災服務,確保糧食生產安全,採用遼寧西部氣象鑑測站1953—2013年氣候資料,運用積分濕度指數、榦濕指數、氣候傾嚮率等氣候診斷分析方法,評價遼西地區玉米全生育期降水滿足度、榦旱頻率及變化趨勢。結果錶明:1)1953—2013年期間玉米全生育期大氣降水減少,氣候變化率為-11.594 mm/10a,近10年(2004—2013年)減少76.7 mm;耗水量增加,氣候變化率為3.842 mm/10a,近10年增加11.6 mm;玉米全生育期水分平均虧缺66.9 mm,近10年虧缺122.7 mm;2)降水滿足度為84.0%,氣候傾嚮率為-2.512 mm/10a,近10年降水滿足度下降16.3%;3)遼西地區玉米全生育期內屬于半濕潤氣候類型,半榦旱年景佔27.9%,近10年榦濕程度升級為半榦旱氣候類型;4)榦旱風險度平均為26.9%,榦旱風險度升高趨勢明顯,2004—2013年比1953—1962年榦旱風險度增加14百分點。
위옥미생산방재감재복무,학보양식생산안전,채용료녕서부기상감측참1953—2013년기후자료,운용적분습도지수、간습지수、기후경향솔등기후진단분석방법,평개료서지구옥미전생육기강수만족도、간한빈솔급변화추세。결과표명:1)1953—2013년기간옥미전생육기대기강수감소,기후변화솔위-11.594 mm/10a,근10년(2004—2013년)감소76.7 mm;모수량증가,기후변화솔위3.842 mm/10a,근10년증가11.6 mm;옥미전생육기수분평균우결66.9 mm,근10년우결122.7 mm;2)강수만족도위84.0%,기후경향솔위-2.512 mm/10a,근10년강수만족도하강16.3%;3)료서지구옥미전생육기내속우반습윤기후류형,반간한년경점27.9%,근10년간습정도승급위반간한기후류형;4)간한풍험도평균위26.9%,간한풍험도승고추세명현,2004—2013년비1953—1962년간한풍험도증가14백분점。
To serve for disaster prevention and mitigation and ensure grain production safety,the authors adopted meteorological stations'climatic data in western Liaoning from 1953 to 2013,and applied climate diagnosis and analysis methods of integral humidity index,arid-wet index,climate tendency rate etc.to evaluate the precipitation satisfaction,drought frequency and variation trend in western Liaoning during the whole maize growth period.Result:1 )From 1953 to 2013 during the whole maize growth period,the atmospheric precipitation showed a trend of decrease,rate of climate change is -11.594 mm/10a,76.7 mm reduced in the last ten years(2004-2013);The water consumption showed an increasing trend,climate change rate is 3.842 mm/10a,11.6 mm increased in the last ten years;average precipitation deficiency during the whole maize growth period is 66.9 mm,deficiency of 122.7 mm in the last ten years. 2)The precipitation satisfaction degree is 84.0%,showing a downtrend;climate tendency rate is -2.512 mm/10a,the precipitation satisfaction degree fell by 16.3% in the last 10 years.3)Western Liaoning during the whole maize growth period belongs to sub-humid climate zone that 27.9% time in a year is semi-arid,acrid-wet degree has upgraded to semi-arid climate type in the last ten years.4)Drought risk degree is averagely 26.9% which has markedly increased.The drought risk degree has increased by fourteen percent from 2004 to 2013 compared with that from 1953 to 1962.