CAJ | 학술논문

为减小金属矿井热害对井下人员安全及井下开采工作的不利影响，需对井下热害进行评价和预测。基于文献调查和专家评价方法，结合工程实际，利用层次分析法构建金属矿井采矿热害评价体系，从生产能力、地质条件、矿井通风、地理环境四个方面提出17个评价指标。在分析层次分析法（ AHP）确定权重不足的基础上，结合物元分析理论，建立确定金属矿井热害评价各因素权重的物元分析模型。在各评价因素权重确定的基础上，以BP神经网络作为评价工具，构建金属矿井热害综合评价预测模型。最后，以某矿山为例，进行评价和预测分析。结果表明，基于物元分析和AHP的BP深井网络评价模型预测误差最大只有3％。
위감소금속광정열해대정하인원안전급정하개채공작적불리영향，수대정하열해진행평개화예측。기우문헌조사화전가평개방법，결합공정실제，이용층차분석법구건금속광정채광열해평개체계，종생산능력、지질조건、광정통풍、지리배경사개방면제출17개평개지표。재분석층차분석법（ AHP）학정권중불족적기출상，결합물원분석이론，건립학정금속광정열해평개각인소권중적물원분석모형。재각평개인소권중학정적기출상，이BP신경망락작위평개공구，구건금속광정열해종합평개예측모형。최후，이모광산위례，진행평개화예측분석。결과표명，기우물원분석화AHP적BP심정망락평개모형예측오차최대지유3％。
In order to reduce the negative influence of thermal hazard in metal mines to personnel safety and the un-derground mining work, it is much necessary to evaluate and predict the risk of thermal hazard in underground min-ing.Based on the method of literature investigation and expert evaluation and combined with the engineering prac-tice, an evaluation index system of thermal hazard in metal mines was established.14 evaluation indexes were put forward from four aspects, such as production capacity, geological conditions, mine ventilation and geographical conditions.Based on analyzing the fit and unfit of the analytic hierarchy process ( AHP) , the matter element analy-sis model in determining weight of thermal hazard in metal mines was established through the matter element analy-sis.With BP neural network as assessment tool, the comprehensive evaluation and forecast model of thermal hazard in metal mines was constructed.Accordingly, the evaluation and forecast analysis was used to evaluate a practical mine as an example.The results showed that the maximum prediction error of BP neural network evaluation model based on the matter element analysis and AHP was only 3%.