CAJ | 학술논문

误差修正是实时洪水预报研究和应用中的重要内容，从修正模型降雨输入角度出发，提出了一种基于微分响应的降雨误差修正方法，并通过实例论证了该方法修正降雨量的适用性。该方法通过计算降雨所对应模型的微分响应来修正降雨，从而修正出口断面流量过程。将该修正方法结合新安江模型，对闽江建阳流域的19场历史洪水进行了有效性检验，结果表明：此方法对洪量、洪峰的修正效果明显，且能够显著提高洪水预报的合格率，修正后合格率由63．2％提高到94．7％。
오차수정시실시홍수예보연구화응용중적중요내용，종수정모형강우수입각도출발，제출료일충기우미분향응적강우오차수정방법，병통과실례론증료해방법수정강우량적괄용성。해방법통과계산강우소대응모형적미분향응래수정강우，종이수정출구단면류량과정。장해수정방법결합신안강모형，대민강건양류역적19장역사홍수진행료유효성검험，결과표명：차방법대홍량、홍봉적수정효과명현，차능구현저제고홍수예보적합격솔，수정후합격솔유63．2％제고도94．7％。
Error correction is an important part in the study and application of the real-time flood forecasting system .From the per‐spective of correcting the rainfall input of a model ,a new error correction method based on the differential response of rainfall (DRR) is introduced in this paper .And real case study demonstrates the method's applicability in rainfall error correction .The differential response of rainfall corresponding to the model is calculated in the method ,therefore the updating rainfall is calculated ,which finally corrects the outlet discharge .Combining the Xin'anjiang model ,the method is applied to 19 floods in Jianyang Basin of Minjiang Riv‐er .The results indicate that :this method has a significant effect on correcting the flood volume and peak ,and the method can dra‐matically improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting with the fact that the ratio of qualified flood increased from 63 .2% to 94 .7% after being corrected by the new method .