中国农村水利水电
中國農村水利水電
중국농촌수이수전
CHINA RURAL WATER AND HYDROPOWER
2015年
1期
68-74,79
,共8页
张冬冬%鲁帆%严登华%穆文彬%陈争杰
張鼕鼕%魯帆%嚴登華%穆文彬%陳爭傑
장동동%로범%엄등화%목문빈%진쟁걸
Archimedean Copula函数%洪水频率分析%联合分布
Archimedean Copula函數%洪水頻率分析%聯閤分佈
Archimedean Copula함수%홍수빈솔분석%연합분포
Archimedean Copula function%flood frequency analysis%joint probability distribution
应用Archimedean Copula函数,探讨洪水多要素的联合概率分布和条件概率分布。以大渡河流域丹巴站49年的洪水资料为基础,根据图形分析法和AIC信息准则选择拟合效果好的Copula函数计算洪峰、洪量、历时的联合概率分布和条件概率分布,并绘制相应的条件重现期图。结果表明,Gumbel Copula可以较好的拟合洪峰与洪量,而Frank Copula对于洪峰与历时、洪量与历时及洪峰、洪量和历时的三维联合分布效果最好。通过情景设置分别计算不同条件下洪水特征变量的二维和三维条件概率分布和相应的条件重现期。Copula函数全面考虑了洪水特征量之间的相依性,可用于洪峰、洪量和历时联合概率分布的计算。
應用Archimedean Copula函數,探討洪水多要素的聯閤概率分佈和條件概率分佈。以大渡河流域丹巴站49年的洪水資料為基礎,根據圖形分析法和AIC信息準則選擇擬閤效果好的Copula函數計算洪峰、洪量、歷時的聯閤概率分佈和條件概率分佈,併繪製相應的條件重現期圖。結果錶明,Gumbel Copula可以較好的擬閤洪峰與洪量,而Frank Copula對于洪峰與歷時、洪量與歷時及洪峰、洪量和歷時的三維聯閤分佈效果最好。通過情景設置分彆計算不同條件下洪水特徵變量的二維和三維條件概率分佈和相應的條件重現期。Copula函數全麵攷慮瞭洪水特徵量之間的相依性,可用于洪峰、洪量和歷時聯閤概率分佈的計算。
응용Archimedean Copula함수,탐토홍수다요소적연합개솔분포화조건개솔분포。이대도하류역단파참49년적홍수자료위기출,근거도형분석법화AIC신식준칙선택의합효과호적Copula함수계산홍봉、홍량、력시적연합개솔분포화조건개솔분포,병회제상응적조건중현기도。결과표명,Gumbel Copula가이교호적의합홍봉여홍량,이Frank Copula대우홍봉여력시、홍량여력시급홍봉、홍량화력시적삼유연합분포효과최호。통과정경설치분별계산불동조건하홍수특정변량적이유화삼유조건개솔분포화상응적조건중현기。Copula함수전면고필료홍수특정량지간적상의성,가용우홍봉、홍량화력시연합개솔분포적계산。
Archimedean Copula function is used to analyze the joint probability distribution and the condition probability distribution of the three variables of flood including peak ,volume and duration .Based on the 49 years'flood data in Dadu River Basin ,a good fit‐ting Copula function is chosen to calculate the condition probability distribution of flood peak ,volume and duration and drawn figs of corresponding return period .The results show that Gumbel Copula can fit the joint distribution of flood peak and volume while frank Copula is the best choice for the other joint distributions of 2-dimensional as well as the joint distribution of 3 dimensional .Different scenarios are set to calculate two and three-dimensional conditional probability distributions and the corresponding return periods . Copula function that considers the dependency of the flood characteristics comprehensively can be used to calculate joint probability distribution among peaks ,volumes and durations .