CAJ | 학술논문

基于长沙市水资源现状，为平衡居民生活用水、经济生产用水和环境生态用水之间的关系，运用系统动力学方法，建立长沙市水资源－人口－经济－生态环境的耦合系统，模型模拟了现状延续型、经济发展型、节水治污型和综合协调型四种发展模式，选取GDP、人口数量、居民生活需水量、经济需水总量、供需压力作为主要评价指标。结果表明：第一、二、三产业分别保持10％、12％、12％年增长率且节流治污情况与现状延续型保持一致的方案，供需压力将达到节流治污方案的两倍多；经济生产用水对水资源供需压力的影响远大于居民生活用水和环境生态用水；通过适当降低人均用水量来平衡因人口数量增长而增加的居民生活用水是可行的。
기우장사시수자원현상，위평형거민생활용수、경제생산용수화배경생태용수지간적관계，운용계통동역학방법，건립장사시수자원－인구－경제－생태배경적우합계통，모형모의료현상연속형、경제발전형、절수치오형화종합협조형사충발전모식，선취GDP、인구수량、거민생활수수량、경제수수총량、공수압력작위주요평개지표。결과표명：제일、이、삼산업분별보지10％、12％、12％년증장솔차절류치오정황여현상연속형보지일치적방안，공수압력장체도절류치오방안적량배다；경제생산용수대수자원공수압력적영향원대우거민생활용수화배경생태용수；통과괄당강저인균용수량래평형인인구수량증장이증가적거민생활용수시가행적。
In order to balance the relationship between demand of households ,economic production water and environmental ecological water ,a coupling system“resources-population-economy-ecological environment”is established based on the status of water re‐sources in Changsha .It is related to system dynamics approach and selects the GDP ,population ,living water demand ,total economic water demand ,supply and demand pressures as the main evaluation index .The system model simulates the four patterns ,the status continuity pattern ,the new economic development pattern ,the water-saving and pollution control pattern and coordination of the de‐velopment pattern .The result shows that :The supply and demand pressures of the pattern which the first ,second ,third industry separately maintain the 10% ,12% ,12% annual growth and the water-saving and pollution control conditions are consistent with the status continuity pattern will reach more than twice the water-saving and pollution control pattern .The economic production of water has much greater impact on water supply and demand than the pressure of living water and ecological environment water ;It is feasible that we reduce per capita water consumption appropriately to balance the number of living water due to population growth .