CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于1980年至2012年的数据对中、印两国物质资本、人力资本数值进行估算，运用产出分解模型将这段时期内的中、印经济增长率分解为物质资本增长率、人力资本增长率与全要素生产率增长率，并分阶段探究两国每个阶段上推动经济增长的主要因素及其产出贡献率。文章还根据分解结果结合两国国情，对未来中、印的经济增长进行了预测，并针对新形势下实现中国经济的长期稳定增长提出了相应的对策性建议。
본문기우1980년지2012년적수거대중、인량국물질자본、인력자본수치진행고산，운용산출분해모형장저단시기내적중、인경제증장솔분해위물질자본증장솔、인력자본증장솔여전요소생산솔증장솔，병분계단탐구량국매개계단상추동경제증장적주요인소급기산출공헌솔。문장환근거분해결과결합량국국정，대미래중、인적경제증장진행료예측，병침대신형세하실현중국경제적장기은정증장제출료상응적대책성건의。
Using the relevant data of China and India in 1980-2012, this paper employs output decomposition model to es-timate the two countries’ physical capital and human capital and tries to disassemble their economic growth rate into physical capital growth rate, human capital growth rate and total factor productivity growth rate. The paper also intends to analyze the main determinant factors of the two countries’ economic growth and their respective contribution. On the basis of the result of this research and the basic national situations in both countries, the paper predicts the economic growth in China and India in the coming years and provides some policy suggestions for China to realize a stable economic growth in a long run.