应用移动平均法的趋势季节模型开展宜昌市手足口病预测预警
응용이동평균법적추세계절모형개전의창시수족구병예측예경
Forecasting and Early Warning of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Yichang City by Seasonal Trend Model Based on Moving Average Method
  • 万方数据
    中国卫生信息管理杂志 중국위생신식관리잡지
    CHINESE JOURNAL OF HEALTH INFORMATICS AND MANAGEMENT
    2014年 6期 635-639 ,共5页

    张皓%徐勇%潘会明%贺圆圆%赵鑫%余凤苹%曹亚军%易晋华%燕虹%官旭华

    장호%서용%반회명%하원원%조흠%여봉평%조아군%역진화%연홍%관욱화

    手足口病%移动平均法%趋势季节模型%预测预警 手足口病%移動平均法%趨勢季節模型%預測預警
    수족구병%이동평균법%추세계절모형%예측예경
    Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD)%Moving average method%Seasonal trend model%Forecasting and early warning
    目的应用移动平均法的趋势季节模型，对湖北省宜昌市手足口病开展预测预警。方法应用Excel 2007对宜昌市2009～2013年手足口病疫情进行统计分析。结果趋势季节模型预测结果显示2014年宜昌市手足口病疫情的两个高峰分别为第19周（5月）和第48周（11月）。结论基于移动平均法的趋势季节模型应用于手足口病的预测预警具有实际意义。
    목적응용이동평균법적추세계절모형，대호북성의창시수족구병개전예측예경。방법응용Excel 2007대의창시2009～2013년수족구병역정진행통계분석。결과추세계절모형예측결과현시2014년의창시수족구병역정적량개고봉분별위제19주（5월）화제48주（11월）。결론기우이동평균법적추세계절모형응용우수족구병적예측예경구유실제의의。
    Objective To forecast hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) condition and early warning in Yichang city by seasonal trend model based on moving average method.Method HFMD data from 2009 to 2013 in Yichang city was analyzed by Excel 2007.ResultsSummer and winter were the seasons with high rates of HFMD incidence in Yichang city. Seasonal trend model analysis forecasted that the 19th week and 48th week would be the weeks with the highest HFMD occurrences in the year 2014.Conclusion It is feasible to use the seasonal trend model based on moving average method to forecast the incidence of HFMD and early warning. There is practical significance for the prevention and control of disease.
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