CAJ | 학술논문

目的全面了解上海市卫生人力资源现状，分析目前存在的问题；对本市卫生人力需求进行目标年的预测，为本市打造亚洲一流医学中心城市建设目标提供依据。方法通过描述性分析及目标差距法研究上海市卫生人力资源现状；通过灰色模型GM（1，1）对卫生人力进行趋势分析。结果（1）多项卫生人力关键指标已达到上海市卫生人才发展“十二五”规划目标；（2）卫生人力资源地区分布不平衡，与地区人口不相匹配；（3）卫生人力资源医疗机构间分布不均衡导致医生担负差别明显；（4）卫生人力资源科室间分布不均衡也是一个突出问题。（5）根据灰色模型GM（1，1）研究，预计2015年上海市卫生技术人员量将达到16.99万人，2020年卫生人员数将达到21.38万人。
목적전면료해상해시위생인력자원현상，분석목전존재적문제；대본시위생인력수구진행목표년적예측，위본시타조아주일류의학중심성시건설목표제공의거。방법통과묘술성분석급목표차거법연구상해시위생인력자원현상；통과회색모형GM（1，1）대위생인력진행추세분석。결과（1）다항위생인력관건지표이체도상해시위생인재발전“십이오”규화목표；（2）위생인력자원지구분포불평형，여지구인구불상필배；（3）위생인력자원의료궤구간분포불균형도치의생담부차별명현；（4）위생인력자원과실간분포불균형야시일개돌출문제。（5）근거회색모형GM（1，1）연구，예계2015년상해시위생기술인원량장체도16.99만인，2020년위생인원수장체도21.38만인。
Objective To study the status and analyze the main problem of health manpower resource (HMP) in Shanghai; to explore the demand forecasting model of health manpower resource for predicting demand of target year in Shanghai for the goal of making Shanghai being a first-class medical center in Asia.Methods By descriptive study and distance to expected value to study the status of health manpower resource in Shanghai;and using gay model GM(1,1) to analyze the tendency of health manpower.ResultMany key index for health manpower have reach the goal on health talent development of Twelfth Five-Year Guideline; The distribution of HMP in Shanghai is difference, and not match to the population in the region; The imbalance on HMP between medical institution have made the significant difference on the burden of doctor; There is also an outstanding problem which the imbalance on HMP distribution exist among different divisions. According to gay model GM(1,1), the quantity of medical technical personnel in Shanghai will up to 169.9 thousands in 2015, and by 2020, the quantity will be 213.8 thousands.