情报杂志
情報雜誌
정보잡지
JOURNAL OF INFORMATION
2015年
1期
88-91
,共4页
潜力学科%灰色系统%Web of Science%InCites%GM(1,1)模型
潛力學科%灰色繫統%Web of Science%InCites%GM(1,1)模型
잠역학과%회색계통%Web of Science%InCites%GM(1,1)모형
potential discipline%grey system%Web of Science%InCites%GM(1,1)
基于InCites的论文数量及被引频次,应用灰色系统理论,对高校潜力学科发展进行了预测研究。首先依据2004-2013年InCites数据建立GM(1,1)模型,通过模型的拟合分析,预测未来若干年高校潜力学科高水平论文的发展趋势。然后通过总被引用频次预测值与ESI数据库中的最低值进行比较,给出了高校潜力学科与世界前1%科研机构的差距。实证分析表明,基于灰色系统的建模方法可以对高校潜力学科的发展趋势作出合理的预测,研究结果将为高校相关学科的发展提供指导作用。
基于InCites的論文數量及被引頻次,應用灰色繫統理論,對高校潛力學科髮展進行瞭預測研究。首先依據2004-2013年InCites數據建立GM(1,1)模型,通過模型的擬閤分析,預測未來若榦年高校潛力學科高水平論文的髮展趨勢。然後通過總被引用頻次預測值與ESI數據庫中的最低值進行比較,給齣瞭高校潛力學科與世界前1%科研機構的差距。實證分析錶明,基于灰色繫統的建模方法可以對高校潛力學科的髮展趨勢作齣閤理的預測,研究結果將為高校相關學科的髮展提供指導作用。
기우InCites적논문수량급피인빈차,응용회색계통이론,대고교잠역학과발전진행료예측연구。수선의거2004-2013년InCites수거건립GM(1,1)모형,통과모형적의합분석,예측미래약간년고교잠역학과고수평논문적발전추세。연후통과총피인용빈차예측치여ESI수거고중적최저치진행비교,급출료고교잠역학과여세계전1%과연궤구적차거。실증분석표명,기우회색계통적건모방법가이대고교잠역학과적발전추세작출합리적예측,연구결과장위고교상관학과적발전제공지도작용。
According to the number of papers and the times cited in the InCites, this paper makes forecast about the development of high quality research papers of potential disciplines in universities by applying the Gray System theory. Firstly, it builds a GM(1,1) model based on the data in InCites from 2004 to 2013, and predicts the trends of high quality research papers of potential disciplines in universities in the coming years fitting the analysis of the model. Secondly, it compares the predicted value of times cited with the lowest ones in ESI database, which shows the gap between the potential disciplines in universities and the world's top 1% research institutions. Empirical a-nalysis shows that trends of high quality research papers of potential disciplines in universities can be predicted legitimately by using the Gray System modeling method. The results of this paper can provide guidance for the development of certain related disciplines in universi-ties concerned.
