经济与管理评论
經濟與管理評論
경제여관리평론
Shandong Economy
2015年
1期
13-18
,共6页
消费%增长%人力资本%传导机制
消費%增長%人力資本%傳導機製
소비%증장%인력자본%전도궤제
consumption%growth%human labor capital%transmission mechanism
消费能否拉动经济增长还存在比较大的争议，重要原因在于消费拉动经济增长的机理尚不清楚。基于对消费—增长不同观点的述评，构建了消费—人力资本—增长的理论模型，即消费是维系劳动力简单生产、实现劳动力再生产、促进劳动人力资本积累的基本途径；消费带来的人力资本积累直接促进了经济增长。在这一传导机制的基础之上，利用黄金储蓄率方法对我国潜在消费规模进行初步估算，估算消费释放有可能带来的增长效应，并就消费拉动经济增长提出相关建议。
消費能否拉動經濟增長還存在比較大的爭議，重要原因在于消費拉動經濟增長的機理尚不清楚。基于對消費—增長不同觀點的述評，構建瞭消費—人力資本—增長的理論模型，即消費是維繫勞動力簡單生產、實現勞動力再生產、促進勞動人力資本積纍的基本途徑；消費帶來的人力資本積纍直接促進瞭經濟增長。在這一傳導機製的基礎之上，利用黃金儲蓄率方法對我國潛在消費規模進行初步估算，估算消費釋放有可能帶來的增長效應，併就消費拉動經濟增長提齣相關建議。
소비능부랍동경제증장환존재비교대적쟁의，중요원인재우소비랍동경제증장적궤리상불청초。기우대소비—증장불동관점적술평，구건료소비—인력자본—증장적이론모형，즉소비시유계노동력간단생산、실현노동력재생산、촉진노동인력자본적루적기본도경；소비대래적인력자본적루직접촉진료경제증장。재저일전도궤제적기출지상，이용황금저축솔방법대아국잠재소비규모진행초보고산，고산소비석방유가능대래적증장효응，병취소비랍동경제증장제출상관건의。
It is still under hot discussion whether consumption can lead to economic growth or not.The underlying reason is that the mechanism has remained unclear that explains consumption promotes economic growth.On the basis of different opinions on the rela-tionships between consumption and growth,a theoretical model of Consumption-Labor capital-Growth is constructed,which indicates that consumption is the basic way to maintain simple labor production,ensure labor reproduction,and promote the accumulation of hu-man labor capital.The accumulation of Human labor capital brought about by consumption directly promotes economic growth.The pa-per,based on this transmission mechanism,assesses preliminarily China's consumption potential by utilizing the standards of golden savings rate,then makes an estimate of the possible growth effect caused by the release of consumption potential,and finally puts for-ward suggestions for consumption-driven economic growth.
