CAJ | 학술논문

了解气候变化情景下我国常绿阔叶林潜在适宜生境的空间变化特征，对于未来的生物多样性保护、植被修复及区域规划等方面都具有极其重要的作用。利用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（ IPCC）第5次评估报告（ AR5）发布的最新气候情景数据，结合物种分布多模型集合预测平台ModEco，预测气候变化情景下到21世纪50年代我国常绿阔叶林潜在适宜生境的变化。结果表明，气候变化将导致我国常绿阔叶林潜在适宜生境面积增加，增加的潜在适宜生境主要位于青藏高原南部和东南部地区；大气中排放的温室气体浓度越高，我国常绿阔叶林潜在适宜生境的面积增幅越大。
료해기후변화정경하아국상록활협림잠재괄의생경적공간변화특정，대우미래적생물다양성보호、식피수복급구역규화등방면도구유겁기중요적작용。이용연합국정부간기후변화전문위원회（ IPCC）제5차평고보고（ AR5）발포적최신기후정경수거，결합물충분포다모형집합예측평태ModEco，예측기후변화정경하도21세기50년대아국상록활협림잠재괄의생경적변화。결과표명，기후변화장도치아국상록활협림잠재괄의생경면적증가，증가적잠재괄의생경주요위우청장고원남부화동남부지구；대기중배방적온실기체농도월고，아국상록활협림잠재괄의생경적면적증폭월대。
A better understanding of spatial variation of potential suitable habitats for evergreen broadleaf forest in China will play an extremely significant role in biodiversity conservation, vegetation restoration, and regional planning in the fu?ture. Based on the latest climate scenario data derived from the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) , changes in potential suitable habitat for evergreen broadleaf forest under predicted changing cli?mate till 2050s were predicted with the aid of ModEco, a multi?model ensemble forecasting platform for prediction of spe?cies distribution. Results show that climate change will lead to expansion of the area of potential suitable habitat for ever?green broadleaf forest, mainly in the southeast and south parts of the Qinghai?Tibetan Plateau. The higher the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the more significant the expansion.