生态与农村环境学报
生態與農村環境學報
생태여농촌배경학보
JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY AND RURAL ENVIRONMENT
2015年
1期
30-38
,共9页
商州%气温变化%小波周期分析%突变分析%主成分分析
商州%氣溫變化%小波週期分析%突變分析%主成分分析
상주%기온변화%소파주기분석%돌변분석%주성분분석
Shangzhou%extreme temperature%wavelet analysis%mutation analysis%principal component analysis
研究带有地理界线性质区域的山地气候有益于揭示气候变化中全局与局部关系及气候变化的复杂机理。根据1955—2012年日气温资料，综合运用线性趋势分析、累计距平分析、Morlet复数小波分析、滑动 T检验法、Mann?Kendall法和主成分分析等方法，选取国际通用的表征极端气温的9项指数，对秦岭腹地商州地区的极端气温变化进行分析，结果表明：（1）商州近60 a平均气温呈缓慢上升趋势，四季变化趋于缓和。（2）极端最低气温、极端最高气温、气温年较差、冷夜日数和暖日日数分别以不同速率上升，高温日数、霜冻日数、暖夜日数和冷日日数分别以不同速率下降。（3）商州极端最低、最高气温以及白天、夜晚气温变化具有明显的非对称性。（4）极端气温指数存在16、22和30 a左右的变化周期，30 a左右为第1主周期。（ 5）9个极端气温指数均发生突变，突变年份集中在1990—2001年。（ 6）极端高温和昼指数的变化最明显，各冷指数之间以及各暖指数之间相关关系显著。最后，对商州的自然灾害及预防提出简要意见。
研究帶有地理界線性質區域的山地氣候有益于揭示氣候變化中全跼與跼部關繫及氣候變化的複雜機理。根據1955—2012年日氣溫資料，綜閤運用線性趨勢分析、纍計距平分析、Morlet複數小波分析、滑動 T檢驗法、Mann?Kendall法和主成分分析等方法，選取國際通用的錶徵極耑氣溫的9項指數，對秦嶺腹地商州地區的極耑氣溫變化進行分析，結果錶明：（1）商州近60 a平均氣溫呈緩慢上升趨勢，四季變化趨于緩和。（2）極耑最低氣溫、極耑最高氣溫、氣溫年較差、冷夜日數和暖日日數分彆以不同速率上升，高溫日數、霜凍日數、暖夜日數和冷日日數分彆以不同速率下降。（3）商州極耑最低、最高氣溫以及白天、夜晚氣溫變化具有明顯的非對稱性。（4）極耑氣溫指數存在16、22和30 a左右的變化週期，30 a左右為第1主週期。（ 5）9箇極耑氣溫指數均髮生突變，突變年份集中在1990—2001年。（ 6）極耑高溫和晝指數的變化最明顯，各冷指數之間以及各暖指數之間相關關繫顯著。最後，對商州的自然災害及預防提齣簡要意見。
연구대유지리계선성질구역적산지기후유익우게시기후변화중전국여국부관계급기후변화적복잡궤리。근거1955—2012년일기온자료，종합운용선성추세분석、루계거평분석、Morlet복수소파분석、활동 T검험법、Mann?Kendall법화주성분분석등방법，선취국제통용적표정겁단기온적9항지수，대진령복지상주지구적겁단기온변화진행분석，결과표명：（1）상주근60 a평균기온정완만상승추세，사계변화추우완화。（2）겁단최저기온、겁단최고기온、기온년교차、랭야일수화난일일수분별이불동속솔상승，고온일수、상동일수、난야일수화랭일일수분별이불동속솔하강。（3）상주겁단최저、최고기온이급백천、야만기온변화구유명현적비대칭성。（4）겁단기온지수존재16、22화30 a좌우적변화주기，30 a좌우위제1주주기。（ 5）9개겁단기온지수균발생돌변，돌변년빈집중재1990—2001년。（ 6）겁단고온화주지수적변화최명현，각랭지수지간이급각난지수지간상관관계현저。최후，대상주적자연재해급예방제출간요의견。
The research on mountain climate of a natural area with a geographic boundary is beneficial to reveal the com?plex mechanism governing the relation between local and global climate change. Based on the daily temperature data from 1955 to 2012, with 9 international commonly used index, and the methods of linear trend analysis, accumulative anomaly, Morlet complex wavelet, moving T?test, Mann?Kendall examination and principal component analysis are comprehensively employed to analyze the temporal variability of climate extremes of Shangzhou hinterland of Qinling region. The study found that:( 1) The average temperature slowly increased and the changes between seasons lessened in the past 60 years in Shan?gzhou. (2) The extreme minimum temperature, extreme maximum temperature, annual temperature range, cold nights, warm days increased at different rate, while high temperature, frost days, warm nights, cold days decreased at different rates. (3)It is increased asymmetric change of air temperature between the highest and lowest temperature and the relation?ship of temperature changes between daytime and night. ( 4) All the extreme temperature indices have cycles of 16, 22 and 30 years, with 30 years to be the dominating cycle. (5)Nine extreme temperature indices experienced mutation, and the mutation year concentrated in 1990s. ( 6) Changes in extreme high temperature and diurnal index are the most obvious, and the correlation between the cold index and the warm index is remarkable. On the bases of the research data and conclu?sions, comments have been made to the prevention of natural disaster in Shangzhou area.
