中国稻米
中國稻米
중국도미
CHINA RICE
2015年
1期
1-5
,共5页
中国%稻米%产销%预测%对策
中國%稻米%產銷%預測%對策
중국%도미%산소%예측%대책
China%rice%production and marketing%forecast%strategy
本文分析了20年来我国水稻生产、消费和贸易的变化，认为只有“保红线（即保种植面积3000万hm2，稻谷总产2亿t）攻单产”才能保证我国稻谷95%以上的自给率。并预测了2030年我国稻谷的供求趋势，认为只要确保种植面积年增长率达0.4%、总产年增长率达1.0%，供求关系将趋平衡，并略有节余。为确保我国中期稻谷生产与消费趋于合理区间，提出了“六保”发展措施。
本文分析瞭20年來我國水稻生產、消費和貿易的變化，認為隻有“保紅線（即保種植麵積3000萬hm2，稻穀總產2億t）攻單產”纔能保證我國稻穀95%以上的自給率。併預測瞭2030年我國稻穀的供求趨勢，認為隻要確保種植麵積年增長率達0.4%、總產年增長率達1.0%，供求關繫將趨平衡，併略有節餘。為確保我國中期稻穀生產與消費趨于閤理區間，提齣瞭“六保”髮展措施。
본문분석료20년래아국수도생산、소비화무역적변화，인위지유“보홍선（즉보충식면적3000만hm2，도곡총산2억t）공단산”재능보증아국도곡95%이상적자급솔。병예측료2030년아국도곡적공구추세，인위지요학보충식면적년증장솔체0.4%、총산년증장솔체1.0%，공구관계장추평형，병략유절여。위학보아국중기도곡생산여소비추우합리구간，제출료“륙보”발전조시。
In the paper, changes of production, consumption, trade and supportive policy of rice in Chna were analyzed by using the data in recent 20 years. The supply and demand trends of rice in 2030 in China were forecasted. For the future, if rice planting area grow at an annual rate of 0.4% and the total production grow at an annual rate of 1.0%, the relationship between supply and demand will be trended more balance and a slight surplus. The author put forward to quarante the red line(i.e. the planting area of 30,000,000 hm2, total rice yield of 200,000,000 t) and make great efforts to increase yield per unit area to ensure the rice self-sufficiency rate more than 95%in China. In order to ensure China rice production and consumption trended to a reasonable interval, the six guaran-tee development measures must be implemented.
