CAJ | 학술논문

以发生在地形复杂的四川地区2012年07月03日暴雨为个例，从环流形势、水汽通量和云微物理量3方面具体研究WRFV3.3版本模式7种积云方案对暴雨模拟的效果，结果表明：BMJ方案和KF方案模拟降水效果好于GD和G3D方案，T S评分表明BM J方案和K F方案得分要远远高于其它方案，GD和G3d方案得分最低．云水混合比与雨水混合比的含量高低直接影响模式预报降水量强度，高层大气模拟值的大小对降水量预报起着主要作用．除KF方案以外，其它积云方案模拟的云水混合比发展要早于雨水混合比，随后两者几乎同步发展，云水混合比和雨水混合比值迅速增长后，降水落区和降水范围迅速扩大．最终结果表明在四川地区利用WRF模拟暴雨，积云参数化方案考虑使用KF和BMJ方案，不使用GD和G3d方案．
이발생재지형복잡적사천지구2012년07월03일폭우위개례，종배류형세、수기통량화운미물리량3방면구체연구WRFV3.3판본모식7충적운방안대폭우모의적효과，결과표명：BMJ방안화KF방안모의강수효과호우GD화G3D방안，T S평분표명BM J방안화K F방안득분요원원고우기타방안，GD화G3d방안득분최저．운수혼합비여우수혼합비적함량고저직접영향모식예보강수량강도，고층대기모의치적대소대강수량예보기착주요작용．제KF방안이외，기타적운방안모의적운수혼합비발전요조우우수혼합비，수후량자궤호동보발전，운수혼합비화우수혼합비치신속증장후，강수락구화강수범위신속확대．최종결과표명재사천지구이용WRF모의폭우，적운삼수화방안고필사용KF화BMJ방안，불사용GD화G3d방안．
Taking the heavy rains occurred on July 03 ,2012 in Sichuan complex terrain area as the exam-ple ,seven cumulus model solution the effect of the rainfall simulation in the WRF (v3 .3) has been studied from the air-circulation ,water vapor flux and cloud microphysical variables three aspects of the specific . The results indicate that the BMJ and KF scheme simulated precipitation effect is better than GD and G 3D scheme ,TS score shows that BMJ and KF scores are higher than other schemes ,GD and G3D got the low-est .The model forecast precipitation intensity rapid mixing ratio and the content of the rainwater mixing ratio directly affect ,w hich the high-level simulation values of precipitation forecast plays a important role . Others cumulus clouds scheme of rapid mixing ratio simulation has predated the rainwater mixing ratio be-sides KF scheme ,and then developed together ,precipitation area and precipitation scope expanded rapidly after mixing ratio and rainwater mixing ratio growth plenty .As result recommend forecast the heavy rain in Sichuan province by means of WRF simulations using KF and the BMJ scheme firstly ,and advised don't use the GD and G3d scheme .