病虫灾成灾面积的ARMA模型的分析及应用
병충재성재면적적ARMA모형적분석급응용
The Analysis and of Insects Plague Area Based on the ARMA Model
  • 万方数据
    鞍山师范学院学报 안산사범학원학보
    JOURNAL OF ANSHAN TEACHERS COLLEGE
    2014年 6期 1-5 ,共5页

    李淑娟%赵立纯%黄玉洁

    리숙연%조립순%황옥길

    ARMA模型%病虫灾%成灾面积%预测 ARMA模型%病蟲災%成災麵積%預測
    ARMA모형%병충재%성재면적%예측
    ARMA model%Insects plague%Afflicted area%Prediction
    分析基于气象等因素对病虫灾成灾面积的影响，建立病虫灾成灾面积的时间序列模型。利用湖北省病虫灾成灾面积数据对模型进行平稳化处理，得到确定的ARMA模型，并用其对病虫灾成灾面积进行预测，为病虫害的预测预报提供了理论依据。
    분석기우기상등인소대병충재성재면적적영향，건립병충재성재면적적시간서렬모형。이용호북성병충재성재면적수거대모형진행평은화처리，득도학정적ARMA모형，병용기대병충재성재면적진행예측，위병충해적예측예보제공료이론의거。
    Considering meteorological factors etc,a time series model of insects afflicted area is built. The sta-tionary process of the model is studied using the data of insects afflicted area in Hubei province,and the corre-sponding ARMA model is determined to predict the insects afflicted area. The paper may provide the basis for the prevention and control of pests.
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