CAJ | 학술논문

目的：应用分类树模型构建重症手足口病的预测模型，并评价其应用价值。方法：整群抽取河南省郑州市某医院2013年4月至6月住院治疗的221例发病时间≤72 h的手足口病患儿为研究对象，采用CHAID分类树算法建立重症手足口病的预测模型，采用错分概率Risk值、索引图及受试者工作特征曲线评价模型的应用价值。结果：所建立的分类树模型包括3层，共9个结点，共筛选出4个解释变量：精神差、易惊、热峰≥39℃、手足抖动；其中最为重要的预测因素为精神差和易惊。模型错分概率Risk值为0．045，模型拟合的效果较好。结论：分类树模型不仅能有效地拟合重症手足口病的风险预测，还可以对变量间的交互作用进行有效的筛选。
목적：응용분류수모형구건중증수족구병적예측모형，병평개기응용개치。방법：정군추취하남성정주시모의원2013년4월지6월주원치료적221례발병시간≤72 h적수족구병환인위연구대상，채용CHAID분류수산법건립중증수족구병적예측모형，채용착분개솔Risk치、색인도급수시자공작특정곡선평개모형적응용개치。결과：소건립적분류수모형포괄3층，공9개결점，공사선출4개해석변량：정신차、역량、열봉≥39℃、수족두동；기중최위중요적예측인소위정신차화역량。모형착분개솔Risk치위0．045，모형의합적효과교호。결론：분류수모형불부능유효지의합중증수족구병적풍험예측，환가이대변량간적교호작용진행유효적사선。
Aim:To establish a risk prediction model for severe hand -footm-outh disease(HFMD), and to evaluate its application value for severe HFMD patients .Methods:A total of 221 cases of HFMD within 72 hours who admitted to a hospital in Zhengzhou from April to June of 2013 were cluster selected for questionnaire investigation .The clinical data and laboratory parameters of the patients were collected to analyze the main factors for severe HFMD by making the use of the CHAID classification tree algorithm .The value of the established model was evaluated by the Risk statistics , index map and ROC curve.Results:The model had 3 stratums and 9 nodes.There were 4 explanatory variables screened out in the mod-el, including poor spirit , easy to panic, top temperature above 39 ℃and shake of hands and feet .Poor spirit and easy to panic were the most important risk factors .The risk value of misclassification probability of the model was 0.045, and the classification tree model fitted the actuality very well .Conc lusion:Classification tree model can not only properly predict severe HFMD in children, but also reveal the complex interaction effects among the factors .