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2015年
1期
27-33
,共7页
能源消费结构%碳排放%Markov链%影响因素%路径分析
能源消費結構%碳排放%Markov鏈%影響因素%路徑分析
능원소비결구%탄배방%Markov련%영향인소%로경분석
energy consumption structure%carbon emissions%markov chains%influence factors%path analysis
优化能源消费结构是节能减排目标实现的有效措施。首先分析了能源消费结构演进的内在变动规律，并运用基于OLS估计的Markov链模型预测了2020年中国能源消费结构的变化趋势，得出中国能源消费结构中以煤炭为主的高碳能源消费比重不断下降，而高效清洁能源所占比重不断上升的结论；然后通过路径分析方法对节能减排约束下能源消费结构的外部影响因素进行了剖析，明确其影响效应。结果表明：一方面，碳排放量约束对能源消费结构优化的直接影响较大，能源消费量约束、经济发展水平、能源价格和能源禀赋对能源消费结构优化起着间接推动作用；另一方面，节能减排会对能源供给和能源利用效率造成一定程度的负面影响，从而使碳排放约束和能源消费量约束对科技发展水平产生抑制作用。
優化能源消費結構是節能減排目標實現的有效措施。首先分析瞭能源消費結構縯進的內在變動規律，併運用基于OLS估計的Markov鏈模型預測瞭2020年中國能源消費結構的變化趨勢，得齣中國能源消費結構中以煤炭為主的高碳能源消費比重不斷下降，而高效清潔能源所佔比重不斷上升的結論；然後通過路徑分析方法對節能減排約束下能源消費結構的外部影響因素進行瞭剖析，明確其影響效應。結果錶明：一方麵，碳排放量約束對能源消費結構優化的直接影響較大，能源消費量約束、經濟髮展水平、能源價格和能源稟賦對能源消費結構優化起著間接推動作用；另一方麵，節能減排會對能源供給和能源利用效率造成一定程度的負麵影響，從而使碳排放約束和能源消費量約束對科技髮展水平產生抑製作用。
우화능원소비결구시절능감배목표실현적유효조시。수선분석료능원소비결구연진적내재변동규률，병운용기우OLS고계적Markov련모형예측료2020년중국능원소비결구적변화추세，득출중국능원소비결구중이매탄위주적고탄능원소비비중불단하강，이고효청길능원소점비중불단상승적결론；연후통과로경분석방법대절능감배약속하능원소비결구적외부영향인소진행료부석，명학기영향효응。결과표명：일방면，탄배방량약속대능원소비결구우화적직접영향교대，능원소비량약속、경제발전수평、능원개격화능원품부대능원소비결구우화기착간접추동작용；령일방면，절능감배회대능원공급화능원이용효솔조성일정정도적부면영향，종이사탄배방약속화능원소비량약속대과기발전수평산생억제작용。
An effective measure for realizing the goal of energy-saving and carbon emissions reduction is opti-mizing energy consumption structure.This paper firstly uses Markov chains model based on OLS to predict the trend of China’ s energy consumption structure in 2020, and concludes that consumption structure of high carbon energy relying mainly on coal are falling but clean and high efficient energy will be better-positioned in future energy con-sumption structure.Then it applies the path analysis methods to dissect the external influence factors of energy con-sumption structure in the constraints of energy-saving and carbon emissions reduction and confirms the influence. The results show that on the one hand carbon emissions constraint plays an evident role in improving energy con-sumption structure directly, and energy consumption constraint, economic development level, energy price and en-ergy resource endowment structure drive the optimization of energy consumption structure indirectly.On the other hand, energy supply and energy utilization efficiency will be adversely influenced to some degree by energy conser-vation and emissions reduction so that the constraints of energy-saving and carbon emissions reduction have obvi-ously restrained the technological development level.
