技术经济与管理研究
技術經濟與管理研究
기술경제여관리연구
TECHNOECONOMICS & MANAGEMENT RESEARCH
2015年
3期
3-8
,共6页
核心通货膨胀%货币供给%BQ分解%金融风暴
覈心通貨膨脹%貨幣供給%BQ分解%金融風暴
핵심통화팽창%화폐공급%BQ분해%금융풍폭
Core inflation%Money supply%BQ decomposition%Financial storm
文章对Blanchard and Quah趋势分解（BQ分解）在核心通货膨胀中的应用进行了深入的研究，并针对其在应用中所存在的问题提出相应的解决方案。 BQ分解是根据菲利普斯曲线理论发展而来的，主要用于对多维变量的趋势分解。研究表明，两维var模型的BQ分解通常是充分可解的。但是多维BQ分解由于自身的结构性原因，并不能保证一定可解出有意义的实数解。文章也证明了文献中所提出为了解决该问题的Cholesky分解，其与BQ分解相互矛盾而不可采用，所以文章推荐采用校准的方法。实证表明，由校准BQ分解所得到的核心通货膨胀完全满足理论和实践对它的要求，能够预测CPI指数的发展趋势，所以作为解决多维BQ分解无法正常求解时的备选方法，校准是一种便捷而有效的方法。
文章對Blanchard and Quah趨勢分解（BQ分解）在覈心通貨膨脹中的應用進行瞭深入的研究，併針對其在應用中所存在的問題提齣相應的解決方案。 BQ分解是根據菲利普斯麯線理論髮展而來的，主要用于對多維變量的趨勢分解。研究錶明，兩維var模型的BQ分解通常是充分可解的。但是多維BQ分解由于自身的結構性原因，併不能保證一定可解齣有意義的實數解。文章也證明瞭文獻中所提齣為瞭解決該問題的Cholesky分解，其與BQ分解相互矛盾而不可採用，所以文章推薦採用校準的方法。實證錶明，由校準BQ分解所得到的覈心通貨膨脹完全滿足理論和實踐對它的要求，能夠預測CPI指數的髮展趨勢，所以作為解決多維BQ分解無法正常求解時的備選方法，校準是一種便捷而有效的方法。
문장대Blanchard and Quah추세분해（BQ분해）재핵심통화팽창중적응용진행료심입적연구，병침대기재응용중소존재적문제제출상응적해결방안。 BQ분해시근거비리보사곡선이론발전이래적，주요용우대다유변량적추세분해。연구표명，량유var모형적BQ분해통상시충분가해적。단시다유BQ분해유우자신적결구성원인，병불능보증일정가해출유의의적실수해。문장야증명료문헌중소제출위료해결해문제적Cholesky분해，기여BQ분해상호모순이불가채용，소이문장추천채용교준적방법。실증표명，유교준BQ분해소득도적핵심통화팽창완전만족이론화실천대타적요구，능구예측CPI지수적발전추세，소이작위해결다유BQ분해무법정상구해시적비선방법，교준시일충편첩이유효적방법。
Blanchard and Quah trend decomposition, referred to as the BQ decomposition is further studied in this paper, and the solution to the question discovered in research of core inflation is also proposed in the paper. The BQ decomposition is developed according to the Phillips curve and it is the main method for decomposition of multidimensional variable. Research shows that BQ decomposition in the two dimensional var model is usually sufficiently solvable. Because of its own structural feature, the multidimensional BQ decomposition can not always get meaningful real solution. Cholesky decomposition, as the alternative method to solve this problem, can not be used, because it is contradictory with the identification condition of BQ. Thus, calibration is recommended in the paper. The empirical analysis shows that, core inflation which is obtained from the BQ decomposition with calibration, completely meets the requirements of theory and practice, and it can predict the trend of the development of CPI index, so when the multidimentional BQ decompositionas cannot get the solution, it can be used as the alternative method, it is a simple and effective method.
