工业技术经济
工業技術經濟
공업기술경제
INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY & ECONOMY
2015年
1期
132-144
,共13页
价值驱动树%结构方程模型%供应链风险指标体系%风险评价测度模型
價值驅動樹%結構方程模型%供應鏈風險指標體繫%風險評價測度模型
개치구동수%결구방정모형%공응련풍험지표체계%풍험평개측도모형
value driver tree%structural equation model%supply chain risk index system%C-ESCRE
煤电能源供应链的风险管理问题是保障中国能源安全的重要基石。本文针对中国煤电能源供应链的绩效和风险管理,研究了煤电能源供应链风险管理的风险评价测度问题。基于供应链部门关系的界定,利用价值驱动树方法对风险源传递关系进行梳理,构建中国煤电能源供应链指标体系(C -ES-CRMIS)。通过社会问卷调查的方式收集样本,进行主成分分析,建立结构方程模型(SEM );为测量指标权重,对风险因子载荷分析、二级因子路径系数进行计算;基于指标相关性的指标权重确定方法(CRIT-IC ),得到煤炭供应链风险评价测度模型(C-ESCRE )。结果表明:现阶段,中国煤电能源供应链的主要风险源为政策风险、意外灾害和市场需求风险。节点企业可根据测度模型,对其供应链风险进行评价分析。最后进行了案例分析,以期为政府宏观调控、供应链协同管理以及企业内部控制提供参考。
煤電能源供應鏈的風險管理問題是保障中國能源安全的重要基石。本文針對中國煤電能源供應鏈的績效和風險管理,研究瞭煤電能源供應鏈風險管理的風險評價測度問題。基于供應鏈部門關繫的界定,利用價值驅動樹方法對風險源傳遞關繫進行梳理,構建中國煤電能源供應鏈指標體繫(C -ES-CRMIS)。通過社會問捲調查的方式收集樣本,進行主成分分析,建立結構方程模型(SEM );為測量指標權重,對風險因子載荷分析、二級因子路徑繫數進行計算;基于指標相關性的指標權重確定方法(CRIT-IC ),得到煤炭供應鏈風險評價測度模型(C-ESCRE )。結果錶明:現階段,中國煤電能源供應鏈的主要風險源為政策風險、意外災害和市場需求風險。節點企業可根據測度模型,對其供應鏈風險進行評價分析。最後進行瞭案例分析,以期為政府宏觀調控、供應鏈協同管理以及企業內部控製提供參攷。
매전능원공응련적풍험관리문제시보장중국능원안전적중요기석。본문침대중국매전능원공응련적적효화풍험관리,연구료매전능원공응련풍험관리적풍험평개측도문제。기우공응련부문관계적계정,이용개치구동수방법대풍험원전체관계진행소리,구건중국매전능원공응련지표체계(C -ES-CRMIS)。통과사회문권조사적방식수집양본,진행주성분분석,건립결구방정모형(SEM );위측량지표권중,대풍험인자재하분석、이급인자로경계수진행계산;기우지표상관성적지표권중학정방법(CRIT-IC ),득도매탄공응련풍험평개측도모형(C-ESCRE )。결과표명:현계단,중국매전능원공응련적주요풍험원위정책풍험、의외재해화시장수구풍험。절점기업가근거측도모형,대기공응련풍험진행평개분석。최후진행료안례분석,이기위정부굉관조공、공응련협동관리이급기업내부공제제공삼고。
Risk management of Coal -Electricity supply chain is an important cornerstone for China's energy security . With respect to the performance and risk management of Coal -Electricity supply chain risk management in China , this article is focused on the issues of Coal-Electricity supply chain risk evaluation . Based on defining the relationships among the supply chain sectors , using Value Driver Tree to sort out the risk sources , Coal-Electricity Supply Chain Risk Management Index System is built . Social questionnaires samples are collected to introduce a principal component analysis , and Structural Equation Modeling is employed . With respect to the weight of index , the factor loading and the path coefficient of risks are discussed at the same time . According to the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation method , a model of Coal -Electricity supply chain risk evaluation is built . The results show that :currently , the main risk sources of China's Coal -Electricity supply chain are policy risks , accidental disasters and market demands . The enterprises in supply chain would evaluate the risks by using the C -ESCRE . Finally , we illustrate a case study just to provide a reference for the government's macro-control , supply chain management and enterprise internal control .