华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
EAST CHINA ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
2015年
3期
85-90
,共6页
中国国防费%补偿性增长%协调性增长
中國國防費%補償性增長%協調性增長
중국국방비%보상성증장%협조성증장
Chinese defense expenditure%compensatory growth%coordinated growth
文章受Laurent Ferrara （2003）启发，选用1978-2012年实际国防费增长率时间序列作为实证数据，运用MS-AR模型对该时间序列进行结构转换分析，研究结果表明：受国防发展战略影响，中国国防费增长大致经历了4个阶段。1980-1988年，国防费处于负增长期，平均增长率约为-3.17%；1989-1996年，国防费处于低增长期，平均增长率约为4.69%；1989-2009年，国防费处于补偿性增长期，平均增长率约为11.99%；2010-2012年，经济增速放缓，国防建设与之协调，其增长率明显减缓。实证结果表明，中国国防费增长具有补偿性、协调性以及防御性特征；2010年以来中国国防费的增长趋势有所变化，在经历持续多年的补偿性增长后，正从补偿性增长向协调性增长转变。为了更有效地实现经济建设与国防建设的协调发展，我国应该大力推动工业和信息化领域军民融合深度发展。
文章受Laurent Ferrara （2003）啟髮，選用1978-2012年實際國防費增長率時間序列作為實證數據，運用MS-AR模型對該時間序列進行結構轉換分析，研究結果錶明：受國防髮展戰略影響，中國國防費增長大緻經歷瞭4箇階段。1980-1988年，國防費處于負增長期，平均增長率約為-3.17%；1989-1996年，國防費處于低增長期，平均增長率約為4.69%；1989-2009年，國防費處于補償性增長期，平均增長率約為11.99%；2010-2012年，經濟增速放緩，國防建設與之協調，其增長率明顯減緩。實證結果錶明，中國國防費增長具有補償性、協調性以及防禦性特徵；2010年以來中國國防費的增長趨勢有所變化，在經歷持續多年的補償性增長後，正從補償性增長嚮協調性增長轉變。為瞭更有效地實現經濟建設與國防建設的協調髮展，我國應該大力推動工業和信息化領域軍民融閤深度髮展。
문장수Laurent Ferrara （2003）계발，선용1978-2012년실제국방비증장솔시간서렬작위실증수거，운용MS-AR모형대해시간서렬진행결구전환분석，연구결과표명：수국방발전전략영향，중국국방비증장대치경력료4개계단。1980-1988년，국방비처우부증장기，평균증장솔약위-3.17%；1989-1996년，국방비처우저증장기，평균증장솔약위4.69%；1989-2009년，국방비처우보상성증장기，평균증장솔약위11.99%；2010-2012년，경제증속방완，국방건설여지협조，기증장솔명현감완。실증결과표명，중국국방비증장구유보상성、협조성이급방어성특정；2010년이래중국국방비적증장추세유소변화，재경력지속다년적보상성증장후，정종보상성증장향협조성증장전변。위료경유효지실현경제건설여국방건설적협조발전，아국응해대력추동공업화신식화영역군민융합심도발전。
This paper,inspired by Laurent Ferrara’s research (2003),uses the time sequence of actual defense ex?penditure growth rate from 1978 to 2012 as the empirical data, and employs MS-AR model to make a structural transformation analysis on this time sequence. The results show that Chinese defense expenditure growth affected by the national defense development strategy,has approximately gone through four states. From 1980 to 1988,the na?tional defense expenditure was in the negative growth period, with the average growth rate of about -3.17 percent. From 1989 to 1996, it was in the lower growth period, with the average growth rate of about 4.69 percent. From 1989 to 2009, it was in the compensatory growth period, with the average growth rate of about 11.99 percent. From 2010 to 2012, China slowed down its economic development, and the national defense expenditure kept its pace with the economic growth and also slowed down considerably. The empirical results also indicate that Chinese defense expenditure growth has the distinctive features of compensation, coordination and defense. The growth ten?dency of Chinese defense expenditure has experienced some changes, and is shifting from compensatory growth to coordinated growth since 2010 after years of constant compensatory growth. China should vigorously promote the inte?grated military and civilian development deeply in industry and information technology fields so as to more effective?ly facilitate the harmonious development of national defense and economic construction.
