CAJ | 학술논문

针对传统出口方程理论发展过程中存在的缺陷，在异质性贸易理论的基础上构建了推导出口决定方程的理论框架，进而利用2000-2011年中国与其他113个国家的面板数据和动态系统GMM方法，具体估计了中国的出口决定方程。结果显示出口决定方程与出口需求方程存在根本性差别，忽略供给面变量会导致出口收入弹性和价格弹性的明显低估；而且，发达国家、发展中国家的外部需求和相对出口价格变动影响中国出口的程度完全不同。因此，“稳出口”的政策因应，不仅要充分考虑出口供给面的重要作用，还需关注国别间的显著差异。
침대전통출구방정이론발전과정중존재적결함，재이질성무역이론적기출상구건료추도출구결정방정적이론광가，진이이용2000-2011년중국여기타113개국가적면판수거화동태계통GMM방법，구체고계료중국적출구결정방정。결과현시출구결정방정여출구수구방정존재근본성차별，홀략공급면변량회도치출구수입탄성화개격탄성적명현저고；이차，발체국가、발전중국가적외부수구화상대출구개격변동영향중국출구적정도완전불동。인차，“은출구”적정책인응，불부요충분고필출구공급면적중요작용，환수관주국별간적현저차이。
There is deficiency in the process of the development of the traditional export equation theory. In view of this,a theory framework is constructed on the basis of the heterogeneous trade theory to deduct the export determinant equation. According to the panel trading data of China with 113 countries from 2000 to 2011 and by using the dynamic systemic GMM methods,the export deter-minant equation of China specifically is thus estimated. The results show that,there are fundamental differences between the export de-terminant equation and the export demand equation and the neglect of the variables of the supply side will lead to the underestimation of the elasticity of both export income and price. Furthermore,the external demand and the changes of relative export price between de-veloped countries and developing countries exert completely different degrees of influence on Chinaˊs export. Therefore,policies in re-ponse to the "steady export" policy should pay particular attention to the significant differences among countries as well as take suffi-cient consideration of the importance of the supply side of export.