现代城市研究
現代城市研究
현대성시연구
URBAN RESEARCH
2015年
4期
67-74
,共8页
基础设施%城市%互动发展%系统动力学
基礎設施%城市%互動髮展%繫統動力學
기출설시%성시%호동발전%계통동역학
infrastructure%city%interactive development%system dynamics
着眼于基础设施与城市互动发展的复杂动态关系，在对基础设施系统与城市经济、社会、环境之间相互作用机理分析的基础上，建立了基础设施系统与城市互动发展的因果关系图和系统动力学模型。以上海市为例，设计了自然演变模式、基础设施发展模式、环境保护模式和协调发展模式4种假定情景模式，运用VENSIM软件进行政策仿真和预测。不同发展模式的分析和比较表明：协调发展模式是实现基础设施系统与城市社会、经济和环境的综合协同发展和城市可持续发展的最优方案。研究结果可为未来城市基础设施投资和发展提供科学参考和决策支持。
著眼于基礎設施與城市互動髮展的複雜動態關繫，在對基礎設施繫統與城市經濟、社會、環境之間相互作用機理分析的基礎上，建立瞭基礎設施繫統與城市互動髮展的因果關繫圖和繫統動力學模型。以上海市為例，設計瞭自然縯變模式、基礎設施髮展模式、環境保護模式和協調髮展模式4種假定情景模式，運用VENSIM軟件進行政策倣真和預測。不同髮展模式的分析和比較錶明：協調髮展模式是實現基礎設施繫統與城市社會、經濟和環境的綜閤協同髮展和城市可持續髮展的最優方案。研究結果可為未來城市基礎設施投資和髮展提供科學參攷和決策支持。
착안우기출설시여성시호동발전적복잡동태관계，재대기출설시계통여성시경제、사회、배경지간상호작용궤리분석적기출상，건립료기출설시계통여성시호동발전적인과관계도화계통동역학모형。이상해시위례，설계료자연연변모식、기출설시발전모식、배경보호모식화협조발전모식4충가정정경모식，운용VENSIM연건진행정책방진화예측。불동발전모식적분석화비교표명：협조발전모식시실현기출설시계통여성시사회、경제화배경적종합협동발전화성시가지속발전적최우방안。연구결과가위미래성시기출설시투자화발전제공과학삼고화결책지지。
To describe the complex dynamic relation between infrastructure system and city, the causal relationship figure and system dynamic model are designed based on the analysis about the inherent mechanism of interaction among infrastructure system and urban economy, society and environment. Shanghai is taken as a case study for demonstrating the application of the model. Four development modes are designed for the simulation and prediction of future development trend. Simulation is performed by VENSIM software. The analysis and comparison results show that coordinated development policy is the optimum one to realize the harmonious development between infrastructure system and urban society, economy and environment as well as sustainable urban development. The research results can provide reference to the future development and investment decision of urban infrastructure.
