CAJ | 학술논문

“胡焕庸线”是反映中国人地关系的重要地理发现之一。在当今中国经济社会背景下，“胡焕庸线”所表达地理意义及其对城镇化发展的指导作用受到广泛关注。在GIS的支持下，构建了改革开放以来4次人口普查的县级空间数据库，提出人口时空扩张的识别方法，对“胡焕庸线”两侧的人口数量、集疏格局进行统计、分析，主要得出以下结论：①“胡焕庸线”两侧人口数量94：6的大数一直相对稳定，但东南半壁人口持续微减、西北半壁人口持续微增。得益于较高的自然增长率，西北半壁具有较高的人口增长速度。②“胡焕庸线”两侧呈现出迥然不同的人口集疏模式。东南半壁人口集中化程度提升较快，负增长区在“秦岭—淮河”以南、东北等地区大面积扩张、人口正增长优势逐步极化到长三角、珠三角、京津等少数地区，呈现“马太效应”式的集疏模式。主要是由于东南半壁内部区域经济差异及快速城镇化带来的剧烈人口流动。③西北半壁则呈现“相对均势”的人口集疏模式，多数地区的人口普遍表现为正增长，但是空间分布广袤、增长不集中，人口集中化程度提升缓慢。主要是由于少数民族“多分散、少聚居”造成了自然增长优势的不集中。然而均势是相对而不是绝对的，同样存在一定的负增长区，主要分布在“胡焕庸线”和“新欧亚大陆桥”两条带上。④未来时期，“胡焕庸线”两侧的人口分布及集疏格局将进一步演化，东南半壁应关注内陆腹地及中小城镇对人口的吸纳作用，西北半壁应关注将分散的人口增长优势向少数城镇进行集聚，以期为人口地理学研究以及城镇化发展提供参考。
“호환용선”시반영중국인지관계적중요지리발현지일。재당금중국경제사회배경하，“호환용선”소표체지리의의급기대성진화발전적지도작용수도엄범관주。재GIS적지지하，구건료개혁개방이래4차인구보사적현급공간수거고，제출인구시공확장적식별방법，대“호환용선”량측적인구수량、집소격국진행통계、분석，주요득출이하결론：①“호환용선”량측인구수량94：6적대수일직상대은정，단동남반벽인구지속미감、서북반벽인구지속미증。득익우교고적자연증장솔，서북반벽구유교고적인구증장속도。②“호환용선”량측정현출형연불동적인구집소모식。동남반벽인구집중화정도제승교쾌，부증장구재“진령—회하”이남、동북등지구대면적확장、인구정증장우세축보겁화도장삼각、주삼각、경진등소수지구，정현“마태효응”식적집소모식。주요시유우동남반벽내부구역경제차이급쾌속성진화대래적극렬인구류동。③서북반벽칙정현“상대균세”적인구집소모식，다수지구적인구보편표현위정증장，단시공간분포엄무、증장불집중，인구집중화정도제승완만。주요시유우소수민족“다분산、소취거”조성료자연증장우세적불집중。연이균세시상대이불시절대적，동양존재일정적부증장구，주요분포재“호환용선”화“신구아대륙교”량조대상。④미래시기，“호환용선”량측적인구분포급집소격국장진일보연화，동남반벽응관주내륙복지급중소성진대인구적흡납작용，서북반벽응관주장분산적인구증장우세향소수성진진행집취，이기위인구지이학연구이급성진화발전제공삼고。
The Hu Line for population distribution in China has been regarded as one of the greatest geographical discoveries in China because it reveals the significant spatial characteristics of China's human-land relationship. Thus, the stability and significance for spatial development of Hu Line have become a major concern after the dramatic economic and social changes since China's reform and opening-up in 1978. With the support of GIS, this paper conducts a statistical analysis and systematic investigation on the stability and spatial patterns of population growth on both sides of Hu Line by constructing the spatial database of China's census data from 1982 to 2010 and initiating a new method for identifying the spatial patterns of population growth. The findings are as follows: (1) The Hu Line has been rather stable, while a new tendency of population change has emerged. On the whole, the ratio of population on both sides of Hu Line has roughly been kept at 94:6 (the southeastern side:the northwestern side) in the last 30 years. However, the proportion of population on the southeastern side of Hu Line has been slightly decreasing, while that on the northwestern side of Hu Line has been slightly increasing, which is benefited from its higher rate of natural population growth. (2) The spatial patterns of population growth on both sides of Hu Line were quite different. The agglomeration degree of population distribution on the southeastern side of Hu Line increased greater. The areas with negative population growth rate have rapidly expanded, malnly located south of the Qinling Mountalns- Hualhe River line and the northeastern China, while the areas with the fast population growth rate concentrated in the areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan region. Thus, the spatial pattern of population growth on the southeastern side of Hu Line presented an aggregating and diffusion mode of Matthew effect. (3) The spatial pattern of population growth on the northwestern side of Hu Line could be referred as the relative balance type. In this region, the positive rate of population growth and the lower agglomeration degree of population have been identified. There were lots of ethnic groups located on the northwestern side of Hu Line, and they generally lived dispersedly but with a higher rate of natural population growth due to preferential population policy. However, there were also some areas with negative rate of population growth on the northwestern side of Hu Line and they were malnly distributed close to the Hu Line and new Eurasia Land Bridge. (4) In the future, the spatial patterns of population growth on both sides of Hu Line will continue to change. On the southeastern side of Hu Line, the capacity of population agglomeration for those small and medium-sized cities and towns should be enhanced. As for the northwestern side of Hu Line, the emphasis should be placed on promoting its urbanization and enhancing the capacity of population agglomeration for major cities.