地理学报
地理學報
지이학보
ACTA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA
2015年
4期
604-614
,共11页
耕地%土地利用集约度%复种指数%粮食安全%Theil指数%中国
耕地%土地利用集約度%複種指數%糧食安全%Theil指數%中國
경지%토지이용집약도%복충지수%양식안전%Theil지수%중국
arable land%land-use intensity%multiple cropping index%food security%Theil index%China
从国家、区域和省级三个层面上分析了1998-2012年间中国耕地复种指数的变化趋势，并基于Theil指数探讨了中国耕地复种指数的时空差异，利用计量经济学模型从人文视角探讨了耕地复种指数变化的影响因素。结果表明：①在全国尺度上，中国耕地复种指数总体上呈逐年增长的趋势。②在区域尺度上，复种指数最高的为中部地区，最低的为东北地区；而复种指数增长最快的是东北地区，最慢的是中部地区，东部地区呈下降趋势。③中国31个省份复种指数各不相同，且差距大，复种指数增长最快的是新疆、宁夏和云南。④由Theil指数值的大小可知，中国耕地复种指数的差异呈缩小态势，其主要原因为四大区域间的差异。⑤人口非农化比重对耕地复种指数产生了显著负向作用，产业非农化比重、农业政策、人均经营耕地和农村家庭人均经营纯收入对耕地复种指数产生了显著正向作用。最后，本文认为转移农村剩余劳动力，提高农民的经营性收入水平，促进土地流转，形成土地规模化经营，以及进一步加大对欠发达地区及粮食主产区农业发展的惠农扶持力度，充分发挥国家惠农政策的诱致作用，有利于全面提高中国耕地复种水平。
從國傢、區域和省級三箇層麵上分析瞭1998-2012年間中國耕地複種指數的變化趨勢，併基于Theil指數探討瞭中國耕地複種指數的時空差異，利用計量經濟學模型從人文視角探討瞭耕地複種指數變化的影響因素。結果錶明：①在全國呎度上，中國耕地複種指數總體上呈逐年增長的趨勢。②在區域呎度上，複種指數最高的為中部地區，最低的為東北地區；而複種指數增長最快的是東北地區，最慢的是中部地區，東部地區呈下降趨勢。③中國31箇省份複種指數各不相同，且差距大，複種指數增長最快的是新疆、寧夏和雲南。④由Theil指數值的大小可知，中國耕地複種指數的差異呈縮小態勢，其主要原因為四大區域間的差異。⑤人口非農化比重對耕地複種指數產生瞭顯著負嚮作用，產業非農化比重、農業政策、人均經營耕地和農村傢庭人均經營純收入對耕地複種指數產生瞭顯著正嚮作用。最後，本文認為轉移農村剩餘勞動力，提高農民的經營性收入水平，促進土地流轉，形成土地規模化經營，以及進一步加大對欠髮達地區及糧食主產區農業髮展的惠農扶持力度，充分髮揮國傢惠農政策的誘緻作用，有利于全麵提高中國耕地複種水平。
종국가、구역화성급삼개층면상분석료1998-2012년간중국경지복충지수적변화추세，병기우Theil지수탐토료중국경지복충지수적시공차이，이용계량경제학모형종인문시각탐토료경지복충지수변화적영향인소。결과표명：①재전국척도상，중국경지복충지수총체상정축년증장적추세。②재구역척도상，복충지수최고적위중부지구，최저적위동북지구；이복충지수증장최쾌적시동북지구，최만적시중부지구，동부지구정하강추세。③중국31개성빈복충지수각불상동，차차거대，복충지수증장최쾌적시신강、저하화운남。④유Theil지수치적대소가지，중국경지복충지수적차이정축소태세，기주요원인위사대구역간적차이。⑤인구비농화비중대경지복충지수산생료현저부향작용，산업비농화비중、농업정책、인균경영경지화농촌가정인균경영순수입대경지복충지수산생료현저정향작용。최후，본문인위전이농촌잉여노동력，제고농민적경영성수입수평，촉진토지류전，형성토지규모화경영，이급진일보가대대흠발체지구급양식주산구농업발전적혜농부지력도，충분발휘국가혜농정책적유치작용，유리우전면제고중국경지복충수평。
This paper examines the trend of multiple cropping index (MCI) change in China at national, regional and provincial levels during 1998-2012. Based on the Theil index, it explores the spatio-temporal difference of MCI in China. In addition, a spatial econometric model is used to identify the determinants of the temporal and spatial differences of MCI from the behavior perspective. The results are summarized as follows: (1) From the national perspective, the MCP shows an increasing trend year by year. (2) At the regional level, Northeast China is the fastest growing area in terms of the MCI, whereas the central region is the slowest growing area. The central region has the highest level of MCI, while the northeast region shows the lowest level. (3) According to the Theil index value, the differences of MCI show a narrowing trend, which is malnly attributed to the differences among the four regions. (4) The MCI shows differences among China's 31 provinces, and the gap is great. (5) The proportion of non-agricultural population has a significant negative effect on the MCI, and the proportion of non-agriculture industry, agricultural policy and the per capita operating arable land have significant positive impact on the MCI. Finally, some policies are suggested to ralse the level of China's cultivated cropping, such as transfering rural surplus labor, increasing the farmers' income, accelerating the transfer of cultivated land's right of use, form the scale effect of land use, further supporting and benefiting farmers in underdeveloped regions and major graln producing areas, and strengthening the role of the national agricultural policy.
