中国农业资源与区划
中國農業資源與區劃
중국농업자원여구화
CHINA AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES AND REGIONAL PLANNING
2015年
2期
1-8
,共8页
状态空间模型%气候变化%中国粮食安全%动态效应
狀態空間模型%氣候變化%中國糧食安全%動態效應
상태공간모형%기후변화%중국양식안전%동태효응
climate change%food security%dynamic effects%state space model
粮食安全问题关乎国家的长治久安,2014年中央经济工作会议将“切实保障国家粮食安全”提升为六大经济任务中的首要一项。该文着重探究气候变化对我国粮食安全的动态影响,以稻谷、小麦、玉米3种主要粮食作物产量分别作为研究因变量,从气候变化与要素投入两方面选取指标作为自变量。以1978~2012年的面板数据为样本,通过基于卡尔曼滤波理论的状态空间模型对我国气候变化与粮食安全的动态关系进行了研究之后发现：气候变化、物质要素投入与粮食产量之间存在一种随时间不断变化的长期动态均衡关系,即变参数关系。气温方面,我国主要粮食产区气温普遍升高,气温上升对玉米的负面影响尤其明显；降水方面,稻谷主产区降水减少、玉米主产区降水则呈现增加的情况,结合水利设施考虑,稻谷主产区应注重预防干旱灾害,玉米主产区则要注意预防洪涝的影响；日照方面,全国粮食主产区日照时数减少,给粮食产量带来一定积极影响。气候变化对各种作物的影响不同,总体来看,稻谷、小麦的适应性好于玉米。为了应对气候变化、保障我国粮食安全,该文提出以下参考措施：包括构建气象监测分析预测一体化的决策系统、调整农作物布局和结构、调整激励体系、建立气象灾害保险。
糧食安全問題關乎國傢的長治久安,2014年中央經濟工作會議將“切實保障國傢糧食安全”提升為六大經濟任務中的首要一項。該文著重探究氣候變化對我國糧食安全的動態影響,以稻穀、小麥、玉米3種主要糧食作物產量分彆作為研究因變量,從氣候變化與要素投入兩方麵選取指標作為自變量。以1978~2012年的麵闆數據為樣本,通過基于卡爾曼濾波理論的狀態空間模型對我國氣候變化與糧食安全的動態關繫進行瞭研究之後髮現：氣候變化、物質要素投入與糧食產量之間存在一種隨時間不斷變化的長期動態均衡關繫,即變參數關繫。氣溫方麵,我國主要糧食產區氣溫普遍升高,氣溫上升對玉米的負麵影響尤其明顯；降水方麵,稻穀主產區降水減少、玉米主產區降水則呈現增加的情況,結閤水利設施攷慮,稻穀主產區應註重預防榦旱災害,玉米主產區則要註意預防洪澇的影響；日照方麵,全國糧食主產區日照時數減少,給糧食產量帶來一定積極影響。氣候變化對各種作物的影響不同,總體來看,稻穀、小麥的適應性好于玉米。為瞭應對氣候變化、保障我國糧食安全,該文提齣以下參攷措施：包括構建氣象鑑測分析預測一體化的決策繫統、調整農作物佈跼和結構、調整激勵體繫、建立氣象災害保險。
양식안전문제관호국가적장치구안,2014년중앙경제공작회의장“절실보장국가양식안전”제승위륙대경제임무중적수요일항。해문착중탐구기후변화대아국양식안전적동태영향,이도곡、소맥、옥미3충주요양식작물산량분별작위연구인변량,종기후변화여요소투입량방면선취지표작위자변량。이1978~2012년적면판수거위양본,통과기우잡이만려파이론적상태공간모형대아국기후변화여양식안전적동태관계진행료연구지후발현：기후변화、물질요소투입여양식산량지간존재일충수시간불단변화적장기동태균형관계,즉변삼수관계。기온방면,아국주요양식산구기온보편승고,기온상승대옥미적부면영향우기명현；강수방면,도곡주산구강수감소、옥미주산구강수칙정현증가적정황,결합수리설시고필,도곡주산구응주중예방간한재해,옥미주산구칙요주의예방홍로적영향；일조방면,전국양식주산구일조시수감소,급양식산량대래일정적겁영향。기후변화대각충작물적영향불동,총체래간,도곡、소맥적괄응성호우옥미。위료응대기후변화、보장아국양식안전,해문제출이하삼고조시：포괄구건기상감측분석예측일체화적결책계통、조정농작물포국화결구、조정격려체계、건립기상재해보험。
Food security is closely related to the long-term stability of our country, which is promoted as one of the six primary tasks in the Central Economic Affairs Meeting lists in 2014 . This paper mainly discussed the dynam-ic effects of climate change on food security, i. e. , taking the yields of rice, wheat and corn as dependent variables and climate changes and factor inputs as explanatory variables. We estimated the dynamic relation between China's climate change and food security based on a state space model and panel dataset from 1978 to 2012 . The results showed that there was a long-time dynamic equilibrium relationship among climate change, materials input and food production. During the study period, it detected the following trends regarding temperature, precipitation and sunshine. Temperature generally rising in China's major grain producing areas had a significant negative effect on corn yields. Precipitation decreased in main rice producing areas and increased in main corn producing areas. Therefore, the main rice producing areas should focus on preventing drought, while the main corn producing areas should pay more attention to preventing floods. Sunshine duration decreased nation-widely had a positive impact on food yields. Generally, climate change had different influences on different crops. The adaptability of rice and wheat was better than corn. Based on these findings, the following measures were proposed to enhance the food se-curity of China:to establish an integrated analysis and forecasting meteorological monitoring system, to adjust the layout and structure of crops production, to improve the incentive mechanism, and to establish meteorological disas-ter insurance system.
