CAJ | 학술논문

干旱区城市工业发展日益受到水资源供需矛盾加剧和水环境污染严重的约束,从水足迹视角估算工业部门耗水程度,进而优化工业结构以达到节水减污的目标,对于干旱区城市走新型工业化道路具有重要意义。本文构建工业水足迹模型和基于水足迹的多目标优化模型,选择干旱区绿洲城市乌鲁木齐市为典型案例区,研究工业内部各部门的水足迹,并以此为基础对工业部门进行聚类分析,根据聚类结果和乌鲁木齐工业发展规划,运用优化模型探讨未来研究区工业发展的优化方案。结果显示：①以工业增加值、各工业部门蓝、灰水足迹值为基础,乌鲁木齐工业部门可以划分为：强经济贡献、强耗水、强污染,强经济贡献、弱耗水、弱污染,弱经济贡献、弱耗水、弱污染,弱经济贡献、强耗水、强污染4类。②以分类结果为依据,通过优化分析确定可持续发展模式作为乌鲁木齐市工业未来发展的基础方案,此种模式下,2015年乌鲁木齐市工业水足迹为3．13亿m3,其中,蓝水足迹0．72亿m3,灰水足迹2．41亿m3,工业总产值为2340亿元,增加值达到1342亿元,和其他情境相比,它具有蓝水、灰水足迹较低,工业投入产出水平较高的特点。③具体而言,乌鲁木齐市工业应发展具有强经济贡献、弱耗水、弱污染特征的采选业。积极培育弱经济贡献、弱耗水、弱污染行业向高投入产出、环境友好型行业转变,这些行业包括：食品业、饮料业、纺织业、家具业、非金属业、设备业、机械及器材业等。引导石油炼焦业、电力、热力及水的生产和供应业、金属业等强耗水、强污染型行业向节水减污模式转型。
간한구성시공업발전일익수도수자원공수모순가극화수배경오염엄중적약속,종수족적시각고산공업부문모수정도,진이우화공업결구이체도절수감오적목표,대우간한구성시주신형공업화도로구유중요의의。본문구건공업수족적모형화기우수족적적다목표우화모형,선택간한구록주성시오로목제시위전형안례구,연구공업내부각부문적수족적,병이차위기출대공업부문진행취류분석,근거취류결과화오로목제공업발전규화,운용우화모형탐토미래연구구공업발전적우화방안。결과현시：①이공업증가치、각공업부문람、회수족적치위기출,오로목제공업부문가이화분위：강경제공헌、강모수、강오염,강경제공헌、약모수、약오염,약경제공헌、약모수、약오염,약경제공헌、강모수、강오염4류。②이분류결과위의거,통과우화분석학정가지속발전모식작위오로목제시공업미래발전적기출방안,차충모식하,2015년오로목제시공업수족적위3．13억m3,기중,람수족적0．72억m3,회수족적2．41억m3,공업총산치위2340억원,증가치체도1342억원,화기타정경상비,타구유람수、회수족적교저,공업투입산출수평교고적특점。③구체이언,오로목제시공업응발전구유강경제공헌、약모수、약오염특정적채선업。적겁배육약경제공헌、약모수、약오염행업향고투입산출、배경우호형행업전변,저사행업포괄：식품업、음료업、방직업、가구업、비금속업、설비업、궤계급기재업등。인도석유련초업、전력、열력급수적생산화공응업、금속업등강모수、강오염형행업향절수감오모식전형。
The development of urban industry in arid lands is constrained by the severe contradiction between the supply of available water and the demand for water resources, as well as increasing water pollution. We calculated the water consumption of industrial sectors from the perspective of their water footprints, and optimized the industrial structure to achieve the goals of water conservation and reduction of water pollution. These are of great significance to guarantee sustainable urban development in arid lands. In this study, we generated industrial water footprint (WFi), and multi-objective programming(MOP) models based on the concept of water footprint. Then we selected Urumqi as a case study, and estimated the water consumption of its industrial sectors using the WFi model. Based on this, we performed a cluster analysis of the industrial sectors. Finally, based on the cluster results and the industrial development plan for Urumqi, we examined the program for future industrial development using the MOP model. This study revealed the following. ①Based on the industrial added value, as well as blue and grey footprints of every industrial sector, we divided the industrial sectors into four categories. These were sectors with strong economic contribution, high water consumption, and much pollution; sectors with strong economic contribution, low water consumption, and little pollution; sectors with weak economic contribution, low water consumption, and little pollution;and sectors with weak economic contribution, high water consumption, and much pollution. ② On this basis, using the MOP model, we selected the sustainable mode as the best future program for industrial development in Urumqi. According to it, the WFi would be 3. 13×108 m3 in Urumqi in 2015, and assumes that the industrial blue water footprint would be 0. 72×108 m3 and the industrial grey water footprint would be 2. 41×108 m3. Industrial output value and added value would be 2. 34×1011RMB Yuan,1. 34×1011RMB Yuan respectively. The sustainable mode has somewhat smaller blue and grey footprints, and higher levels of input/output, compared to the other modes studied. ③ Specifically, industrial development in Urumqi should include mining and selection of industries that show strong economic contributions, low water consumption, and little pollution. Simultaneously, there should be positive cultivation of industries with weak economic contribution, low water consumption, and little pollution at present, so that they can change into industrial sectors with higher levels of environmentally friendly input/output. This would include sectors such as those involving food,beverage,textile,furniture,nonmetal,equipment, and machinery. Finally, we must lead change in those industrial sectors currently consuming too much water, and polluting too much, to the new mode in which they consume less water and pollute less. These industrial sectors are involving oil and coking, electricity generation, thermal and water production and supply, and metal.